494 S Paseo Cerro Unit D · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Condo · 247 Days on market

Built 1964 $378/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upgraded 2 Bedroom Condo in Villas East. Updated Kitchen and Bath, All Tile Floors, (No Carpet), Laundry Closet. Private Location with Views. *** No GVR *** This Condo is also available ''For Rent''.

Key facts

• Bonus storage room
• Tile floors
• Double closets

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• TILE FLOORS
• BONUS STORAGE ROOM
• WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW WINDOW SHADES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 696; Lot size approximately 871 sq ft; Zoned Green Valley - TR
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee; HOA amenities include pool and maintenance; HOA fee covers common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, roof repair, water and sewer

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from municipal water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; Built-up roof; Stucco finish and masonry fencing; Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio; Patio; Decorative gravel; Subdivided lot; Corner lot; East/West exposure; Paved road; County-maintained road; Pool (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric cooktop; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Furnished; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Exterior laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-654/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (6.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $125k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-19,423
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,897
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$378
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $117,015

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-11	+0% $-54	+5% $-98	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-114	+0% $-54	+5% $5	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-23	base $-54	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	25d	1	0.07mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	19d	1	0.09mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	19d	1	0.09mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	25d	1	0.10mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	25d	1	0.16mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.17mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	4d	1	0.20mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.20mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	16d	1	0.24mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	4d	1	0.39mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	3d	1	0.47mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	3d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $378 · $4,536/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $124,900
16. 2025-10-17
    listed $129,900 Active
17. 2014-12-19
    soldstatus $53,350 Closed 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Upgraded 2 Bedroom Condo in Villas East. Updated Kitchen and Bath, All Tile Floors, (No Carpet), Laundry Closet. Private Location with Views. *** No GVR *** This Condo is also available ''For Rent''.

18. 2012-10-26
    soldstatus $28,571 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Auction Property. Beautifully updated condo in Green Valley. 2 BD with Jack n Jill bathroom. Tile throughout, corner unit, very cute!!

19. 2012-10-11
    historical 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Auction Property. Beautifully updated condo in Green Valley. 2 BD with Jack n Jill bathroom. Tile throughout, corner unit, very cute!!

20. 2012-07-30
    listed $57,900 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Auction Property. Beautifully updated condo in Green Valley. 2 BD with Jack n Jill bathroom. Tile throughout, corner unit, very cute!!

21. 2012-06-04
    historical
22. 2012-03-05
    listed $64,888

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − HOA: −$4,536
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$605
• After-tax cash flow: $-48/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+92.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $124,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-17 Listed $129,900 MLSSAZ
• 2014-12-19 Sold (MLS) $53,350 MLSSAZ
• 2012-10-26 Sold (MLS) $28,571 MLSSAZ
• 2012-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2012-07-30 Listed $57,900 MLSSAZ
• 2012-06-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2012-03-05 Listed $64,888 MLSSAZ