420 Oak Branch Dr · Covington, LA 70435

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2011 $182/sqft · 6% below area Est $281k · 6% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has been meticulously cared for. The master bath has two sinks and an extra-large shower. The bedroom has no carpet and has been freshly painted.as a matter of fact the whole house has a fresh coat of Paint! The yard has been landscaped, and the back yard has an extensive concrete patio with a retractable awning for your entertaining delight on those hot summer days,

Key facts

• No carpet
• Freshly painted
• Landscaped yard

Tags

• MASTER BATH TWO SINKS
• EXTRA-LARGE SHOWER
• NO CARPET
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• EXTENSIVE CONCRETE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $385

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with two parking spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Excellent condition; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, stucco, and vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fence; Patio; Concrete patio; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Stainless steel appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-760/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E. E. Lyon Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #79 of 646 statewide, top 13%, 662 students, 63% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 57%, 635 students, 62% FRL); Covington High School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #90 of 265 statewide, top 34%, 1,660 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 40% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $158k; list at $265k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,792 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,529
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -5.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
537 Piney Plains Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+0%)	2mo	$255,000	$175	95
625 Wild Meadow Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+0%)	9mo	$245,000	$168	91
525 Piney Plains Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-0%)	8mo	$259,250	$179	90
413 Oak Branch Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+2%)	9mo	$250,000	$168	88
528 Buckthorne Pl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	4mo	$233,000	$160	82
207 Carriage Pines Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+2%)	2mo	$269,500	$182	79
309 Branch Crossing Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,569 (+8%)	6mo	$240,000	$153	65
700 Covington Point Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,380 (-5%)	5mo	$285,000	$207	60
101 Saint John Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+11%)	2mo	$260,950	$161	60
500 Buckthorne Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+9%)	10mo	$260,000	$163	58
18165 Pheasant Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+13%)	9mo	$245,000	$149	53
405 N Ozone Park Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,286 (-12%)	7mo	$110,000	$86	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,080
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-46,622
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $936/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,038

Max offer price $253,815

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $12	+0% $-63	+5% $-138	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-141	+0% $-63	+5% $14	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $4	base $-63	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Knoll Pine Cir Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,900	$1.18	19d	1	0.27mi
1419 N Hosmer St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,950	$1.39	21d	1	0.87mi
325 E Hornsby St Covington, LA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,650	$1.59	25d	1	0.94mi
1016 Ronald Reagan Hwy Covington, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$1,745	$1.61	3d	24	0.95mi
17361 Regina Coeli Rd Covington, LA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,350	$1.23	25d	1	1.10mi
2000 Pine Crest Ave Covington, LA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1121	$1,411	$1.26	25d	1	1.11mi
209 W 31st Ave Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	16d	1	1.30mi
720 N Tyler St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $265,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has been meticulously cared for. The master bath has two sinks and an extra-large shower. The bedroom has no carpet and has been freshly painted.as a matter of fact the whole house has a fresh coat of Paint! The yard has been landscaped, and the back yard has an extensive concrete patio with a retractable awning for your entertaining delight on those hot summer days,

16. 2026-05-14
    listed $265,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has been meticulously cared for. The master bath has two sinks and an extra-large shower. The bedroom has no carpet and has been freshly painted.as a matter of fact the whole house has a fresh coat of Paint! The yard has been landscaped, and the back yard has an extensive concrete patio with a retractable awning for your entertaining delight on those hot summer days,

17. 2012-04-26
    soldstatus $157,900

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    The Nottingham Plan offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and over 1400' of living area. The Master Suite features double sinks with a garden tub and spacious closet. Hurry while there in still time to pick colors and add upgrade options. Builder will pay up to $5000 in closing costs. (Some restricions apply) Completion Date: April 2012

18. 2011-12-09
    listed $157,900

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    The Nottingham Plan offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and over 1400' of living area. The Master Suite features double sinks with a garden tub and spacious closet. Hurry while there in still time to pick colors and add upgrade options. Builder will pay up to $5000 in closing costs. (Some restricions apply) Completion Date: April 2012

19. 2011-12-09
    listed $157,900

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    The Nottingham Plan offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and over 1400' of living area. The Master Suite features double sinks with a garden tub and spacious closet. Hurry while there in still time to pick colors and add upgrade options. Builder will pay up to $5000 in closing costs. (Some restricions apply) Completion Date: April 2012

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $936 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$522/yr (+$43/mo · 55.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$936
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,311
• After-tax cash flow: $551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, LA
• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+67.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $265,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $265,000 GSREIN
• 2012-04-26 Sold (MLS) $157,900 GSREIN
• 2011-12-09 Listed $157,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2011-12-09 Listed $157,900 GSREIN

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $936 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.