9149 Us Highway 1 S · Palm Coast, FL 32086

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare 0.35 acre lot with mobile home available for sale. Mobile home needs some TLC. AC/Heater is newer.

Key facts

• Newer ac heater
• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1998

Tags

• 0.35 ACRE LOT
• NEWER AC HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $936 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 408 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $119k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.70%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $35,868
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $90,493
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32086

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $897

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,003	-5% $969	+0% $936	+5% $902	+10% $868
Rent	-10% $771	-5% $854	+0% $936	+5% $1,018	+10% $1,100
Rate	-1.0pp $996	-0.5pp $966	base $936	+0.5pp $905	+1.0pp $874

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-09-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-17
   price $119,000
3. 2025-07-07
   price $124,999
4. 2025-04-16
   listed $139,000 Active
5. 2001-04-25
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $420 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 135.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $9,839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,361
• After-tax cash flow: $8,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,855
• Household income: $76,512
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 306.2813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+164.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-24 Pending — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $119,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $124,999 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-04-16 Listed $139,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2001-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $420 · +30.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.