2309 NE 73rd Ave · Gainesville, FL 32609

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 360 Days on market

Built 1982 3.98 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

Key facts

• Close to hospitals
• Close to dining
• Private retreat

Tags

• 3.98-ACRE PROPERTY
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• SMALL FARM
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO HOSPITALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $99k implies a 560% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.97%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,258
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $46,691
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $752/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $789

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $420	+0% $392	+5% $364	+10% $336
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $341	+0% $392	+5% $443	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $417	base $392	+0.5pp $366	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 354 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 352 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 351 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 350 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 346 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 345 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 344 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 343 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 342 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 341 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    status Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

18. 2026-04-30
    historical 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

19. 2026-04-13
    price $99,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

20. 2026-04-02
    status Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

21. 2026-03-31
    historical 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

22. 2026-01-02
    status Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

23. 2026-01-01
    historical 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

24. 2025-10-21
    price $110,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

25. 2025-06-18
    listed $125,000 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Endless possibilities await on this 3.98-acre property just minutes from downtown Gainesville! While the existing mobile home is in need of full renovation or removal, the true value lies in the expansive acreage and prime location. This is a perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, set up a small farm or homestead, or invest in future development. Enjoy the peace and privacy of nearly 4 acres while staying close to shopping, dining, hospitals, and the University of Florida. Whether you're an investor, builder, or someone ready to craft your ideal living space, this property offers flexibility, space, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of land with room to grow in Gainesville!

26. 2024-07-15
    historical
27. 2024-04-25
    status Active
28. 2024-04-22
    historical
29. 2024-02-28
    status Active
30. 2024-01-23
    status Pending
31. 2023-11-16
    price $84,000
32. 2023-08-23
    listed $89,000 Active
33. 2001-06-06
    soldstatus $15,000
34. 1992-12-15
    soldstatus $12,500
35. 1991-08-13
    soldstatus $17,000
36. 1979-03-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $752 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$752
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$787
• After-tax cash flow: $3,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+560.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-16 Price Changed $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-23 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 1991-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 1979-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $752 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.