111 Greenbriar Ln · Morganton, NC 28655

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1950 8,712 sqft lot Est $242k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A quaint ranch home located within minutes of I-40. The home is close to grocery stores, restaurants and shopping. This home is sold "AS IS". It needs someone to show some TLC. Three bedrooms, two bathrooms, with a basement area. Open kitchen space that flows into the living area. This is a must see and great value. New roof installed in August 2021.

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Open kitchen space
• Basement area

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• OPEN KITCHEN SPACE
• BASEMENT AREA
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 space); Driveway with 1 open parking space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; Electric service (electric appliances and heat pump)
• Home design: Single-family residential home; One story
• Construction: Site-built construction; Partial brick and asbestos exterior materials; Built with basement (unfinished)
• Exterior features: Gravel road access on a publicly maintained road; Lot approximately 0.2 acres (dimensions 80 x 105 x 80 x 105)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: One main-level living area (1 room counted); Unfinished basement; Basement and crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Laundry described as 'Other - See Remarks'; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($989/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#149 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, commute F.
• Burke County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #89 of 178 in NC (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Hill Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 269 students, 99% FRL); Walter R Johnson Middle (math 28% / reading 34%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 465 students, 90% FRL); Robert L. Patton High School (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 752 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 52% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 422 units permitted in Burke County in 2024 (94 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burke County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $215k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,541 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,228
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 1/2 W Concord St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+0%)	2mo	$250,000	$168	83
626 W Concord St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (-3%)	1mo	$196,000	$137	75
112 Starmount Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+2%)	18mo	$308,000	$204	55
134 Starmount Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (+8%)	10mo	$350,000	$220	53
107 Burkemont Ave	0.54mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,321 (-11%)	8mo	$216,000	$164	43
110 Mimosa St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,340 (-9%)	16mo	$202,000	$151	39
278 Asheville St	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,304 (-12%)	23mo	$141,000	$108	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-29,677
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-19,430
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28655

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $143	+0% $82	+5% $22	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $13	+0% $82	+5% $152	+10% $221
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $137	base $82	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 E McDowell St Unit B Morganton, NC	4.0	1.0	1070	$1,500	$1.40	22d	1	1.16mi
142 Patrick Murphy Dr Morganton, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,899	$1.97	15d	13	1.22mi
305 E Concord St Morganton, NC	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	22d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 353-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    remarks 352-char remark
12. 2026-06-08
    listed $215,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$715/yr (+$60/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$654
• After-tax cash flow: $1,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700480
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,342
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4400
• State rank: #89 of 178 in NC

Livability — Morganton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #8307

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morganton, NC
• County: Burke County · 55,100 people
• City population: 55,100
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,100
• Household income: $57,713
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1145.0

Population outlook (Burke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,552 people
• By 2030: 84,123 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 78,165 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,099 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 56,264 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 44,742 · -48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.0% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.07%
• Current HPI: 362.0732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+170.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $215,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,048 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.