3431 Sipsey St · The Villages, FL 32162

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2003 5,400 sqft lot Est $306k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3431 Sipsey Street, a delightful Amarillo model home offering comfortable living with three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms. With a brand new roof installed in May 2026, this home combines lasting durability with modern updates for worry-free ownership. Step inside to a bright and airy floor plan filled with natural light that highlights the warm and welcoming living room—perfect for family gatherings and entertaining friends. The functional kitchen features ample counter space, plenty of cabinetry for storage, and space to add your favorite appliances, making cooking and hosting a breeze. The spacious master suite is your private sanctuary, complete with a full ba

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Golf cart access
• Brand new roof

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• GOLF CART ACCESS
• ABUNDANCE OF GOLF COURSES
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Homestead exempt; Furnished; Directions: Located off 466 and CR 101 in the Village of Summerhill
• HOA & community: Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Community pool; Tennis courts; Street lights; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as one-level home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,081/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $320k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $308,092 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3562 Auburndale Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	2mo	$300,000	$216	85
3248 Williams Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	0mo	$375,000	$269	79
5162 NE 122nd Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-6%)	2mo	$260,000	$198	71
935 Kenova Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+13%)	0mo	$397,000	$253	68
1253 Addison Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+3%)	2mo	$348,000	$242	67
1270 Northbrook Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+4%)	2mo	$315,300	$217	64
3189 Atwell Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+6%)	0mo	$315,000	$213	63
3249 Mansfield St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+10%)	1mo	$336,000	$220	60
1270 Weaton Ct	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	2mo	$265,000	$212	48
1289 Addison Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	1mo	$300,000	$240	48
3109 Archer Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+15%)	2mo	$400,000	$250	48
3001 Sandy Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+11%)	0mo	$320,220	$208	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-22,645
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $26,020
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,495/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,556

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3545 Idlewood Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$4,500	$3.63	21d	1	0.20mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	21d	1	0.25mi
3489 Cambria Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,745	$1.47	21d	1	0.38mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	21d	1	0.43mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	21d	1	0.50mi
3207 Woodridge Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,200	$3.66	21d	1	0.51mi
3292 Riverton Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,100	$1.84	21d	1	0.61mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	21d	1	0.66mi
12020 Brush Hill Rd Oxford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$2,295	$2.42	21d	15	0.69mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	21d	1	0.90mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	21d	1	0.97mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	21d	10	1.21mi
2864 Leicester Ter Unit 1525680P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,090	$1.85	21d	1	1.37mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	21d	1	1.40mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	21d	1	1.47mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	21d	1	1.48mi
650 Richland Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$4,500	$3.79	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $320,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $320,000 Active
17. 2004-06-01
    soldstatus $162,000
18. 2004-01-12
    soldstatus $134,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,495 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,495
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,958
• − Management: −$2,958
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$66
• After-tax cash flow: $5,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+138.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $134,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,495 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.