201 Clairmont Dr · Warner Robins, GA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $963 – $1,789
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 80.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +24.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +7.7/10.0
- 1% rule +5.7/10.0
- Schools +3.9/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$155,000
201 Clairmont Dr · Warner Robins, GA 31088
3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,770 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 150 Days on market
Built 1965
0.41 ac lot
$56/sqft
· 27% below area
Est $213k · 27% under
↓ 24% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
Key facts
- 0.41 acre lot
- Garage
- Built 1965
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
- Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
- Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 9 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$136,400
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.07% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.64%
- Cash-on-cash
- 8.39%
- DSCR
- 1.37
- GRM
- 7.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $212,860
- List price
- $155,000
- Delta
- -27.18%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 204 Biltmore Ter | 0.09mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,469 (-11%) | 10mo | $240,000 | $97 | 58 |
| 201 Belmont Dr | 0.62mi | 3/2.5 | 2,489 (-10%) | 3mo | $251,000 | $101 | 47 |
| 113 Chestnut Road Rd | 0.72mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 2,673 (-4%) | 10mo | $249,000 | $93 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -5.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.82×
- Total profit
- $-7,988
- Equity at exit
- $23,111
10-year hold
- IRR
- 3.1%
- Equity multiple
- 1.21×
- Total profit
- $9,147
- Equity at exit
- $13,402
Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Georgia
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.
ZIP-level market 31088
- Rents YoY
- 1.7%
- Active inventory
- 294
- Price-to-rent
- 7.8×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,651 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$813
- Tax from tax record
- −$123 /mo · $1,479/yr
- Insurance
- −$65
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$347
- Net cashflow
- $303
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,267
Max offer price
$155,000
Occupancy floor
77%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $391 | -5% $347 | +0% $303 | +5% $260 | +10% $216 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $173 | -5% $238 | +0% $303 | +5% $369 | +10% $434 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $382 | -0.5pp $343 | base $303 | +0.5pp $263 | +1.0pp $222 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $38,750
- Closing costs
- $4,650
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135 Sussex Dr Warner Robins, GA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2047 | $1,495 | $0.73 | 44d | 1 | 1.37mi |
Listing history 35 events
-
2026-06-13statusdays on market $155,000 Under Contract 150 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $155,000 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $155,000 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-06-08statusdays on market $155,000 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-06-07pricestatusdays on market $155,000 Price Change 145 DOM
-
2026-05-06status Under Contract 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-05-06historical Active Under Contract 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-05-06status Pending
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-05-01price $170,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-05-01price $170,000
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-05-01price $170,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-05-01status Active
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-05-01status Back On Market 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-05-01status Active 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-04-24status Under Contract 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-04-24historical Active Under Contract 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-04-24status Pending
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-04-13price $190,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-04-13price $190,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-04-13price $190,000
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-04-07status Active
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-04-07status Active 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-04-07status Back On Market 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-04-01status Under Contract 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-04-01historical Active Under Contract 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-04-01status Pending
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, possibly conventional.
-
2026-03-15price $200,000
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-03-15price $200,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-03-15price $200,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-01-05price $215,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-01-05price $215,000 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2026-01-05price $215,000
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2025-12-01$225,000 Active
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2025-12-01$225,000 Active 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
-
2025-12-01$225,000 New 33-char remark
Show marketing remark (33 chars)
Cash only, Possibly Conventional.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,479 · $123/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,479 · $123/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $19,810
- − Mortgage interest
- −$8,682
- − Property taxes
- −$1,479
- − Insurance
- −$775
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,585
- − Management
- −$1,585
- − Depreciation
- −$4,509
- Taxable income
- $1,195
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$287
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,355/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Houston County
- NCES district ID
- 1302880
- Math proficiency
- 43% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 46% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $54,823
- Composite
- 38.68/100
- National rank
- #4144
- State rank
- #23 of 174 in GA
Livability — Warner Robins
- Score
- 65/100
- State rank
- #227
- US rank
- #13290
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime F
Employment D+
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings F
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Warner Robins, GA
- County
- Houston County · 157,321 people
- City population
- 92,102
- Metro
- Warner Robins, GA
- Population (ZIP)
- 58,585
- Household income
- $83,082
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1668.0
Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 169,502 people
- By 2030
- 178,486 · +5.3%
- By 2040
- 194,642 · +14.8%
- By 2050
- 207,119 · +22.2%
- By 2075
- 231,480 · +36.6%
- By 2100
- 235,034 · +38.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 51% Black 32% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Houston
- 2024 margin
- R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -135.75%
- Current HPI
- 219.8261
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.67%
- Metro
- Warner Robins, GA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.66%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Paper / Packaging | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $160B |
|
||
| Transportation / Logistics | 1 | $91B |
|
||
| Airlines | 1 | $62B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 1 | $47B |
|
||
| Utilities | 1 | $25B |
|
||
Price history
-24.4% since first listed30 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-06 Pending — GAMLS
- 2026-05-06 Contingent — MGMLS
- 2026-05-06 Pending — CGMLS
- 2026-05-01 Price Changed $170,000 MGMLS
- 2026-05-01 Price Changed $170,000 CGMLS
- 2026-05-01 Price Changed $170,000 GAMLS
- 2026-05-01 Relisted — CGMLS
- 2026-05-01 Relisted — GAMLS
- 2026-05-01 Relisted — MGMLS
- 2026-04-24 Pending — GAMLS
- 2026-04-24 Contingent — MGMLS
- 2026-04-24 Pending — CGMLS
- 2026-04-13 Price Changed $190,000 MGMLS
- 2026-04-13 Price Changed $190,000 GAMLS
- 2026-04-13 Price Changed $190,000 CGMLS
- 2026-04-07 Relisted — CGMLS
- 2026-04-07 Relisted — MGMLS
- 2026-04-07 Relisted — GAMLS
- 2026-04-01 Pending — GAMLS
- 2026-04-01 Contingent — MGMLS
- 2026-04-01 Pending — CGMLS
- 2026-03-15 Price Changed $200,000 CGMLS
- 2026-03-15 Price Changed $200,000 MGMLS
- 2026-03-15 Price Changed $200,000 GAMLS
- 2026-01-05 Price Changed $215,000 MGMLS
- 2026-01-05 Price Changed $215,000 GAMLS
- 2026-01-05 Price Changed $215,000 CGMLS
- 2025-12-01 Listed $225,000 CGMLS
- 2025-12-01 Listed $225,000 MGMLS
- 2025-12-01 Listed $225,000 GAMLS
Property tax history
+3.4%/yrLatest (2025): $1,479 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…