2466 CR 401a · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$84,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1982 0.28 ac lot Est $93k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER! Just listed in the heart of Lake Panasoffkee—an area known for its A-rated elementary school, great local restaurants, and a beautiful spring-fed lake famous for trophy largemouth bass, bluegill, sunfish, and catfish. This location offers the perfect blend of quiet rural living with quick access to I-75, making trips to Inverness, Ocala, and The Villages a breeze. Enjoy the true Lake Pan lifestyle with Coleman Landing Public Boat Ramp just minutes away, along with nearby marinas and some of the area’s best fishing and boating spots recreation. This property is a great investment opportunity featuring a 2-bedroom, 2-bath split-plan, front lanai, chain-link fe

Key facts

• Spring fed lake
• Newer back deck
• Large storage shed

Tags

• A RATED ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
• SPRING FED LAKE
• CHAIN LINK FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• NEWER BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.28 acres (about 100 x 120); Road surface: asphalt and gravel; Property type: Residential manufactured home; Universal property ID available
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces east; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Chain link fencing; Mature landscaping with oak trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen-family room combo; Split bedroom layout; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $85k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.90%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,240
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2373 Cr 401	0.10mi	2/1.0	740 (-12%)	0mo	$82,000	$111	71
3816 CR 405c	0.22mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	10mo	$142,500	$154	65
1953 CR 412	0.30mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	11mo	$165,000	$172	53
3839 Cr 405n Rd	0.13mi	2/2.0	720 (-14%)	23mo	$59,000	$82	51
2378 CR 412	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-14%)	12mo	$65,000	$90	38
3182 CR 418	0.74mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	24mo	$50,500	$55	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $50,907
• Equity at exit: $48,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $126,762
• Equity at exit: $82,868

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $680

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $541	-5% $517	+0% $493	+5% $469	+10% $445
Rent	-10% $390	-5% $442	+0% $493	+5% $545	+10% $596
Rate	-1.0pp $536	-0.5pp $515	base $493	+0.5pp $471	+1.0pp $449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $84,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $89,000 Active
17. 2005-11-15
    soldstatus $41,000
18. 1993-03-09
    soldstatus $30,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $4,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,156
• After-tax cash flow: $4,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+191.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1993-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.