1154 Reale Ave · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1959 5,449 sqft lot Est $85k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house is move in ready and waiting on its new owners. It has been freshly painted and offers a lower level that is ready for your finishing touches.

Key facts

• Rear parking
• Fenced backyard
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• SEWER LATERAL REPAIRS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• REAR PARKING
• REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED
• WASHER INCLUDED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,369 (owner source); Above-grade finished area reported as 864 (assessor); Below-grade finished area reported as 505 (owner)
• Financial info: Seller may consider concessions; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street paved parking
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One-story house; Fixer condition; Entry facing not specified
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Private yard; Uncovered courtyard; Awnings; Gently rolling lot; Asphalt road frontage (county road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas range; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Pantry; Partially finished basement; 8+ ft poured concrete basement; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 7.9% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Larimore Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.99%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1136 Walker Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	3mo	$125,000	$145	94
1125 Walker Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	3mo	$114,999	$133	94
1157 Scott	0.17mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	3mo	$137,900	$160	89
1141 Walker Ave	0.04mi	2/1.5 (-1)	864 (0%)	3mo	$105,000	$122	89
1221 Scott Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	4mo	$85,000	$98	88
1219 Congress Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	4mo	$29,900	$35	86
1200 Baron Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	2mo	$77,500	$90	85
1231 Reale Ave	0.13mi	2/1.5 (-1)	864 (0%)	2mo	$69,900	$81	85
1209 Northdale Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	1mo	$79,900	$92	81
1135 Cove Ln	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+8%)	2mo	$85,000	$91	75
1072 Prigge Rd	0.20mi	3/1.5	960 (+11%)	0mo	$99,900	$104	70
1459 Cove Ln	0.54mi	3/1.5	988 (+14%)	3mo	$79,900	$81	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $11,487
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $33,909
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,151/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $801

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1132 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	43d	1	0.12mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	23d	1	0.12mi
1223 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	43d	1	0.12mi
1141 Scott Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	21d	1	0.17mi
11891 Bridgevale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	23d	1	0.23mi
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	1d	1	0.28mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	23d	1	0.31mi
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	43d	1	0.36mi
11930 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	43d	1	0.38mi
1504 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,299	$1.28	4d	1	0.58mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	12d	1	0.60mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	0.63mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	43d	1	0.85mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	1d	9	0.99mi
1333 N Garden Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	626	$1,100	$1.76	43d	1	1.07mi
1342 N Garden Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	626	$1,100	$1.76	1d	3	1.10mi
12367 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12367 I St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	23d	1	1.29mi
12401 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12415 A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	43d	1	1.33mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	1d	3	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 503-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $94,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,151 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,151 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,151
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $4,589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,101
• After-tax cash flow: $4,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+26.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $94,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $89,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2020-09-15 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-26 Price Changed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-16 Price Changed $73,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-13 Price Changed $74,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-11 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,151 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.