20703 Sundial Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Manufactured public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1979 0.32 ac lot $146/sqft · waterfront premium $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a true gem in the Sunrise Shore lakefront community in Chandler. This mobile home was expanded and fully updated from bottom to top, including a new roof and HVAC There are a few more areas for touch-up finish, but with a 2-bedroom, 1 full bath, brand new kitchen appliances, and a contemporary sink, it's almost like a new home. In addition to these features, the property also includes two detached garages and an above-ground swimming pool. Hard to find this cute and very functional home at this price. Don't miss it, and it won't last long! Its potential rent is $1,200/month, and could be a great income property with 8% cap return.

Key facts

• Lakefront community
• Fully updated
• New hvac

Tags

• LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY
• FULLY UPDATED
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• CONTEMPORARY SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,120
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: 159.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20362 Red Oak St	0.45mi	2/1.0	896 (+5%)	8mo	$35,000	$39	65
20896 Ravendale Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0	784 (-8%)	19mo	$35,000	$45	56
5153 Skyline Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	952 (+11%)	24mo	$128,000	$134	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,001
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $8,673
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $552/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $228	+0% $193	+5% $157	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $145	+0% $193	+5% $241	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $225	base $193	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $124,900 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,900 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    status Active 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    This is a true gem in the Sunrise Shore lakefront community in Chandler. This mobile home was expanded and fully updated from bottom to top, including a new roof and HVAC There are a few more areas for touch-up finish, but with a 2-bedroom, 1 full bath, brand new kitchen appliances, and a contemporary sink, it's almost like a new home. In addition to these features, the property also includes two detached garages and an above-ground swimming pool. Hard to find this cute and very functional home at this price. Don't miss it, and it won't last long! Its potential rent is $1,200/month, and could be a great income property with 8% cap return.

18. 2026-04-14
    price $129,000 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    This is a true gem in the Sunrise Shore lakefront community in Chandler. This mobile home was expanded and fully updated from bottom to top, including a new roof and HVAC There are a few more areas for touch-up finish, but with a 2-bedroom, 1 full bath, brand new kitchen appliances, and a contemporary sink, it's almost like a new home. In addition to these features, the property also includes two detached garages and an above-ground swimming pool. Hard to find this cute and very functional home at this price. Don't miss it, and it won't last long! Its potential rent is $1,200/month, and could be a great income property with 8% cap return.

19. 2025-12-08
    historical 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    This is a true gem in the Sunrise Shore lakefront community in Chandler. This mobile home was expanded and fully updated from bottom to top, including a new roof and HVAC There are a few more areas for touch-up finish, but with a 2-bedroom, 1 full bath, brand new kitchen appliances, and a contemporary sink, it's almost like a new home. In addition to these features, the property also includes two detached garages and an above-ground swimming pool. Hard to find this cute and very functional home at this price. Don't miss it, and it won't last long! Its potential rent is $1,200/month, and could be a great income property with 8% cap return.

20. 2025-11-20
    price $125,000 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    This is a true gem in the Sunrise Shore lakefront community in Chandler. This mobile home was expanded and fully updated from bottom to top, including a new roof and HVAC There are a few more areas for touch-up finish, but with a 2-bedroom, 1 full bath, brand new kitchen appliances, and a contemporary sink, it's almost like a new home. In addition to these features, the property also includes two detached garages and an above-ground swimming pool. Hard to find this cute and very functional home at this price. Don't miss it, and it won't last long! Its potential rent is $1,200/month, and could be a great income property with 8% cap return.

21. 2025-09-19
    price $119,000 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    This is a true gem in the Sunrise Shore lakefront community in Chandler. This mobile home was expanded and fully updated from bottom to top, including a new roof and HVAC There are a few more areas for touch-up finish, but with a 2-bedroom, 1 full bath, brand new kitchen appliances, and a contemporary sink, it's almost like a new home. In addition to these features, the property also includes two detached garages and an above-ground swimming pool. Hard to find this cute and very functional home at this price. Don't miss it, and it won't last long! Its potential rent is $1,200/month, and could be a great income property with 8% cap return.

22. 2025-08-15
    listed $129,000 Active 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    This is a true gem in the Sunrise Shore lakefront community in Chandler. This mobile home was expanded and fully updated from bottom to top, including a new roof and HVAC There are a few more areas for touch-up finish, but with a 2-bedroom, 1 full bath, brand new kitchen appliances, and a contemporary sink, it's almost like a new home. In addition to these features, the property also includes two detached garages and an above-ground swimming pool. Hard to find this cute and very functional home at this price. Don't miss it, and it won't last long! Its potential rent is $1,200/month, and could be a great income property with 8% cap return.

23. 2020-11-13
    soldstatus
24. 2012-09-21
    soldstatus
25. 2011-09-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $552 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,734/yr (+$144/mo · 314.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$552
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$65
• After-tax cash flow: $2,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sunrise Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $129,000 GTAR
• 2025-12-08 Delisted — GTAR
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $125,000 GTAR
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $119,000 GTAR
• 2025-08-15 Listed $129,000 GTAR
• 2020-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $552 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.