12505 Royal #62 · Winter Gardens, CA 92021

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition 2,500 sqft lot Est $185k · 20% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ALL AGE COMMUNITY. Opportunity to create your own vision and customization with this 2-bedroom, 2-bath 1152 esf home built in 1969. The functional layout provides a great starting point for updates and improvements to suit your style. A welcoming front porch leads to the entry, and the home sits on a reasonably sized lot with a private backyard and no rear neighbors, offering added privacy. Elevated and situated toward the back of the community, the location provides a peaceful setting. Royal Estates is an All-age community offering a variety of amenities for comfortable living. Residents enjoy access to a clubhouse, swimming pool, and recreational facilities. The neighborhood features pave

Key facts

• Elevated street
• Private backyard
• Porch entry

Tags

• PORCH ENTRY
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• ELEVATED STREET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Double body type (multi-unit/mobile home classification); Directions: Enter from Royal Road, make right and follow signs to Spc 62 at the top of the park
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Suburban community; Land lease in place ($1,100 monthly); manager approval required; Park name: Royal Estates; Pets allowed with size and number limits

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces; Located in Royal Estates park
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (48 ft by 24 ft) — mobile home remains; Single-story
• Construction: Fixer condition
• Exterior features: Porch; Deck; Patio; In-ground pool (fenced, community pool); Back yard; Yard; Level with street; Has view; One shed on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One level home; Living room entry; Primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 2.7% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.47%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,472
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1351 Pepper Dr #18	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-1%)	3mo	$184,000	$161	75
1351 Pepper Dr #26	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	10mo	$160,000	$133	64
1351 Pepper Dr Spc 62	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	2mo	$226,900	$215	63
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 25	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,275 (+11%)	1mo	$235,000	$184	62
1315 Pepper Dr #72	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,220 (+6%)	10mo	$194,000	$159	58
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd #17	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	14mo	$275,000	$220	51
12970 Highway 8 Business #104	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+3%)	13mo	$150,000	$126	50
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 45	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	14mo	$183,000	$147	49
1351 Pepper Dr Spc 40	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	20mo	$171,000	$162	49
12044 Royal Rd #63	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-13%)	5mo	$257,321	$257	48
12970 Highway 8 Business #35	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	16mo	$125,000	$120	44
1315 Pepper Dr #47	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	22mo	$175,000	$140	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $37,696
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $92,266
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $1,094

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	1d	1	0.48mi
1651 Braddon Way Unit B El Cajon, CA	1.0	2.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	1d	1	0.55mi
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	1d	1	0.62mi
12171 Winter Gardens Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	862	$2,500	$2.90	1d	1	0.64mi
8424 Pueblo Rd Unit 8424 Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	1d	1	0.68mi
1365 Broadway El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,478	$3.48	1d	1	1.05mi
1221 Oro St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$2,575	$2.52	1d	1	1.07mi
1520 Oakdale Ave Apt 3 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,125	$2.53	7d	1	1.28mi
8410 Los Coches Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,239	$2.49	1d	1	1.28mi
1512 Oakdale Ave Unit 1512-2 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	805	$1,925	$2.39	1d	1	1.28mi
1430 Diamond Ln El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	863	$2,695	$3.12	2d	1	1.35mi
1314 5 D Dr Unit 1318 El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	960	$2,600	$2.71	23d	1	1.35mi
1696 Buckeye Dr El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	942	$2,900	$3.08	2d	1	1.38mi
816 Oro St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	1235	$3,400	$2.75	2d	1	1.38mi
1377 Oakdale Ave Unit 03 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,425	$2.69	1d	1	1.39mi
1343 Oakdale Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,195	$2.74	1d	1	1.42mi
1171 Marline Ave Unit 1171-A El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5	1141	$3,100	$2.72	1d	1	1.46mi
500 Grape St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	1d	1	1.47mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	2d	1	1.49mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $149,000
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,581
• − Management: −$2,581
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $11,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,745
• After-tax cash flow: $10,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate rehabilitation, focusing on exterior siding, roof, flooring, and interior paint. Landscaping and maintenance are also needed. Updates such as painting, new flooring, and roof replacement would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Moderate roof — Aged metal roof
• Major flooring — Worn carpet
• Major interior walls/paint — Painted walls show wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and adds value
• Both Roof replacement — Improves structural integrity and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Aged metal roof	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Painted walls show wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$48,000–165,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both Roof replacement — Improves structural integrity and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $199,000 CRMLS