5043 Tall Pines Ct · Raleigh, NC 27609

$229,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,134 sqft · Condo public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1972 $691/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Larger than average North Raleigh condo with family room on lower level. HOA dues include water and sewer fees plus there is also a pool and tennis. Overlooks serene pond. It needs some TLC but the investment will surely be worth it. The location is outstanding. This unit lives like a townhouse on 3 levels.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Green space
• Lake views

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• PRIVATE DECK
• WALKING PATHS
• GREEN SPACE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2,096 total (1,532 above grade, 564 below grade)
• HOA & community: HOA (Cedar Hills HOA) with monthly fee; fee covers insurance, grounds maintenance, and pest control

Exterior

• Parking: 4 total parking spaces, including 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family property; Tri-level
• Construction: Concrete and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Concrete slab foundation; Built of mixed concrete and wood materials
• Exterior features: Private maintained road; Zoned R-6

Interior

• Bedrooms: No bedrooms listed
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet and luxury vinyl flooring; Finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (9.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Elementary (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #472 of 1,410 statewide, top 34%, 519 students, 39% FRL); Carroll Middle (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #294 of 475 statewide, top 63%, 871 students, 60% FRL); Sanderson High (math 57% / reading 63%, grade C+, #215 of 535 statewide, top 40%, 1,677 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $229k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,781 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-52,346
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-83,746
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27609

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,363/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$691
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,765

Max offer price $206,781

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-61	+0% $-126	+5% $-191	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-229	+0% $-126	+5% $-23	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-68	base $-126	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
432 Cedar Hill Ln Raleigh, NC	4.0	2.5	2052	$2,995	$1.46	16d	1	0.30mi
4812 Radcliff Rd Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1679	$2,250	$1.34	25d	1	0.38mi
800 Green Ridge Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	25d	1	0.43mi
408 Ashebrook Dr Raleigh, NC	4.0	3.0	1929	$2,750	$1.43	25d	1	0.87mi
6301 Lakecrest Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1155	$2,719	$2.35	3d	41	1.09mi
1583 Laureldale Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1688	$1,895	$1.12	18d	1	1.25mi
6350 Terra Verde Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,007	$1.80	3d	28	1.28mi
200 Park At North Hills St Raleigh, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,985	$3.05	3d	22	1.33mi
2020 Travianna Ct Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,395	$1.55	25d	1	1.33mi
4204 Six Forks Rd Raleigh, NC	3.0	1.0–3.5	1363	$10,953	$8.04	3d	39	1.38mi
505 Westbrook Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	2169	$6,300	$2.90	25d	1	1.43mi
501 Saint Andrews Ct Raleigh, NC	4.0	3.0	2600	$2,450	$0.94	25d	1	1.47mi
1517 Basewood Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	12d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $691 · $8,292/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $229,000 Active
17. 2010-06-04
    historical
18. 2010-02-17
    listed $119,995
19. 2009-12-11
    soldstatus $65,900 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Larger than average North Raleigh condo with family room on lower level. HOA dues include water and sewer fees plus there is also a pool and tennis. Overlooks serene pond. It needs some TLC but the investment will surely be worth it. The location is outstanding. This unit lives like a townhouse on 3 levels.

20. 2009-12-02
    historical 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Larger than average North Raleigh condo with family room on lower level. HOA dues include water and sewer fees plus there is also a pool and tennis. Overlooks serene pond. It needs some TLC but the investment will surely be worth it. The location is outstanding. This unit lives like a townhouse on 3 levels.

21. 2009-09-02
    listed $67,500 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Larger than average North Raleigh condo with family room on lower level. HOA dues include water and sewer fees plus there is also a pool and tennis. Overlooks serene pond. It needs some TLC but the investment will surely be worth it. The location is outstanding. This unit lives like a townhouse on 3 levels.

22. 2009-08-14
    historical
23. 2009-05-20
    listed $99,900
24. 2002-03-14
    historical
25. 2002-01-10
    listed $124,900
26. 1991-02-19
    soldstatus $65,500
27. 1990-06-21
    soldstatus $65,500
28. 1986-12-30
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,363
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,501
• − Management: −$2,501
• − HOA: −$8,292
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,206
• After-tax cash flow: $-303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Raleigh

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1028

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raleigh, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 569,344
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 35,573
• Household income: $83,065
• Rent vs Own: 50.2% rent · 49.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -503.19%
• Current HPI: 317.0251
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.57%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+252.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $229,000 TMLS
• 2010-06-04 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2010-02-17 Listed $119,995 TMLS
• 2009-12-11 Sold (MLS) $65,900 TMLS
• 2009-12-02 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-09-02 Listed $67,500 TMLS
• 2009-08-14 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-05-20 Listed $99,900 TMLS
• 2002-03-14 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2002-01-10 Listed $124,900 TMLS
• 1991-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 1990-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 1986-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,363 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.