30 Lower Seven Ponds Rd · Water Mill, NY 11976

$3,495,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1980 0.89 ac lot $1644/sqft · 67% above area Est $3706k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This classic jewel box in the heart of Water Mill is a picture-perfect Hamptons escape on a shy acre, totally renovated and immediately ready for luxury living. Find 3,767 +/- SF including the fully finished lower level, 5 well-appointed bedrooms, 4 full baths, a fireplace, attached 2-car garage, outdoor shower and large heated pool. Recent renovations have culminated in a 2025 exterior facelift that perfectly complements the Hamptons aesthetic with cedar-shake siding. Arrive to a storybook setting via a large turnaround Belgian stone drive lined with mature, planted specimen trees and gardens that also provide privacy. Inside, vaulted ceilings and oversized windows keep the main living spaces bright all day. The living room features skylight windows and a walkout egress, anchored by a wood-burning fireplace. A second living area serves as an excellent sitting room and additional space for entertaining and relaxing. The eat-in kitchen is chic and contemporary, featuring stainless steel appliances and opening to the dining area set within a bay window bank. Each of the bedrooms is ready for loved ones and guests, including the primary suite, which is set apart for privacy. A finished lower level is designed for year-round luxury living in the Hamptons with an extra bedroom and bath, plus direct access to the garage - ideal for overflow sleeping, a rec room, or a more private hangout zone. Outside, the backyard is designed for summer enjoyment with an expansive deck, heated pool, and ample space to relax, including a basketball area. Beyond the meticulous maintenance, the new owners will appreciate the pool and mechanical upgrades. For the investment buyer, a well-established rental history makes this an excellent opportunity. Your turnkey Hamptons retreat is equidistant from Water Mill and Southampton, close to farmstands and world-famous white sandy ocean beaches - everything that makes Hamptons memories.

Key facts

• Skylight windows
• Outdoor shower
• Cedar-shake siding

Tags

• FULLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• LARGE HEATED POOL
• CEDAR-SHAKE SIDING
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• SKYLIGHT WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $3.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21k ($257k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($58k rent vs $3.50M).
• Recommended offer: $3.08M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $57,711/mo this rent would consume 384% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $326k of equity ($24k loan paydown + $302k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $979k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$522k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.26M; list at $3.50M implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,075,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.29%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,706,289
• List price: $3,495,000
• Delta: -5.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $3,253,395
• Equity at exit: $2,806,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.41×
• Total profit: $9,206,917
• Equity at exit: $5,722,216

Cash invested: $978,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $57,711 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,369 /mo · $52,425/yr
• Insurance: −$1,456
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,119
• Net cashflow: $21,439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $30,574

Max offer price $3,495,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23,854	-5% $22,646	+0% $21,439	+5% $20,231	+10% $19,023
Rent	-10% $16,880	-5% $19,159	+0% $21,439	+5% $23,718	+10% $25,998
Rate	-1.0pp $23,199	-0.5pp $22,328	base $21,439	+0.5pp $20,533	+1.0pp $19,612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $873,750
• Closing costs: $104,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Millfarm Ln Southampton, NY	4.0	4.5	2648	$50,000	$18.88	44d	1	0.28mi
4 Carriage Ln Southampton, NY	4.0	4.0	3000	$72,000	$24.00	44d	1	0.91mi
82 Powell Ave Southampton, NY	4.0	4.0	2414	$70,000	$29.00	25d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,495,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,495,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,495,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,495,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,495,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2025-12-30
    listed $3,495,000 Active 1938-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1938 chars)

    This classic jewel box in the heart of Water Mill is a picture-perfect Hamptons escape on a shy acre, totally renovated and immediately ready for luxury living. Find 3,767 +/- SF including the fully finished lower level, 5 well-appointed bedrooms, 4 full baths, a fireplace, attached 2-car garage, outdoor shower and large heated pool. Recent renovations have culminated in a 2025 exterior facelift that perfectly complements the Hamptons aesthetic with cedar-shake siding. Arrive to a storybook setting via a large turnaround Belgian stone drive lined with mature, planted specimen trees and gardens that also provide privacy. Inside, vaulted ceilings and oversized windows keep the main living spaces bright all day. The living room features skylight windows and a walkout egress, anchored by a wood-burning fireplace. A second living area serves as an excellent sitting room and additional space for entertaining and relaxing. The eat-in kitchen is chic and contemporary, featuring stainless steel appliances and opening to the dining area set within a bay window bank. Each of the bedrooms is ready for loved ones and guests, including the primary suite, which is set apart for privacy. A finished lower level is designed for year-round luxury living in the Hamptons with an extra bedroom and bath, plus direct access to the garage - ideal for overflow sleeping, a rec room, or a more private hangout zone. Outside, the backyard is designed for summer enjoyment with an expansive deck, heated pool, and ample space to relax, including a basketball area. Beyond the meticulous maintenance, the new owners will appreciate the pool and mechanical upgrades. For the investment buyer, a well-established rental history makes this an excellent opportunity. Your turnkey Hamptons retreat is equidistant from Water Mill and Southampton, close to farmstands and world-famous white sandy ocean beaches - everything that makes Hamptons memories.

16. 2019-06-17
    historical
17. 2018-10-30
    price $1,750,000
18. 2018-10-23
    listed $1,795,000 New
19. 2017-09-16
    historical
20. 2017-01-27
    listed $1,995,000 New
21. 2014-02-25
    soldstatus $1,260,000
22. 2013-03-20
    soldstatus $700,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $692,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$195,774
• − Property taxes: −$52,425
• − Insurance: −$17,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$55,403
• − Management: −$55,403
• − Depreciation: −$101,673
• Taxable income: $214,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51,452
• After-tax cash flow: $205,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+399.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-30 Price Changed $1,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-23 Listed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-27 Listed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $1,260,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,404 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.