206 Saranac Ave · Buffalo, NY 14216

$450,000

24 bd · 16.0 ba · 3,782 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1920 4,250 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Prime North Buffalo 4-Unit | Location meets massive opportunity! Situated in a highly sought-after North Buffalo neighborhood just steps from vibrant Hertel Avenue, this rare four-unit property is perfect for savvy investors or owner-occupants looking to live nearly mortgage-free. There are two spacious 2-bed/1-bath units and two cozy 1-bed/1-bath units. All units include a stove and refrigerator. Bonus: The lower front 2-bed unit is conveniently vacant and ready for an owner-occupant or a fresh market-rate tenant! The exterior of the property has a lot to offer with a brand new roof and low-maintenance vinyl siding, two charming 1st-floor wooden porches (including a covered porch exclusive

Key facts

• Hertel avenue
• Vinyl siding
• New roof

Tags

• NORTH BUFFALO NEIGHBORHOOD
• HERTEL AVENUE
• VACANT LOWER FRONT UNIT
• NEW ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• DOUBLE-WIDE CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Residential Multi Use; Four total rental units; Unit rents (as reported): one-unit rents $600, $950; two-unit rents $875; one unit month-to-month; one lease expires Dec 31, 2026
• Financial info: Owner pays water; rent includes water; Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete, paved parking; Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: Multi-family residential property; 2 stories; Resale condition
• Construction: Shingle roof; Vinyl and wood siding; Copper plumbing; Block foundation; Built existing (year built details: Existing)
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes an oven/range and refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen in each unit
• Bedrooms: Four units total: two 1-bedroom units and two 2-bedroom units (unit-level details below)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies by unit
• Bathrooms: Each unit has one full bathroom (4 full bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Full basement; Carpet and hardwood flooring; varying floor materials; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Separate gas and electric meters for each unit (4 separate gas meters, 4 separate electric meters)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×2bd/1ba + 2×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $377/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $443k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,244/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1831% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $450k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $443,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.37%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $26,450
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $160,302
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14216

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 28.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,033/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,101
• Net cashflow: $1,509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,333

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 66%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,682
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,562
Total (4 units)			$5,244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $450,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,319 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,286/yr (+$274/mo · 318.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$1,033
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,034
• − Management: −$5,034
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable income: $11,279
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,707
• After-tax cash flow: $15,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,849
• Household income: $69,629
• Rent vs Own: 54.4% rent · 45.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1831.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -264.53%
• Current HPI: 421.1138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+383.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $450,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-16 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2021-07-13 Listed $449,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $254,520 Public Records
• 2007-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $82,050 Public Records
• 1995-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,033 · -18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.