7534 E Keeney Rd · Fabius, NY 13158

$34,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1920 2.60 ac lot $25/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Why rent when you could own your own home? This Ranch home features 4 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. There is a 1 car garage under the house and a partial basement. There is a large outbuilding on the property. The house is situated on a 2.6 acre lot.

Key facts

• Ranch home
• 2.6 acre lot
• Large outbuilding

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• LARGE OUTBUILDING
• 2.6 ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story existing home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Barn(s); Outbuilding; Irregular, rural lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $856 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#824 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fabius-Pompey Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #322 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($241 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $33,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.11%
• DSCR: 5.68
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,343
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -58.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.90×
• Total profit: $67,448
• Equity at exit: $24,956

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.89×
• Total profit: $155,244
• Equity at exit: $48,120

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13158

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $856

Break-even live

Break-even rent $305

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $34,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $39,900 Active 245-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $10,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,479
• After-tax cash flow: $7,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fabius-Pompey Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610860
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,564
• Composite: 46.16/100
• National rank: #2499
• State rank: #322 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fabius

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #824
• US rank: #15935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,377

Population outlook (Cortland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,543 people
• By 2030: 46,107 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 43,122 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 40,216 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 34,717 · -27.0%
• By 2100: 28,953 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cortland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 46.8% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 10.0pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+6.7 2012: D+8.8 2008: D+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Current HPI: 347.7737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $34,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $39,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,362 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.