484 Cr 3504 · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$142,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1967 $156/sqft · 19% above area Est $119k · 19% over ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTN: INVESTORS! Rental property! Property has a 3/1 house and enough land where mobile homes could be added. Property has a tenant, who is on a month to month basis and income is $1000 per month. House can be shown by appt. See attached map for details.

Key facts

• Enough land
• Built 1967
• Listed 87 days

Tags

• ENOUGH LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,480 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.79%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,164
• List price: $142,000
• Delta: 19.16%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,698
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,828
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,511/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,177

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $142,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $142,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $142,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $142,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $142,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $142,000 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    ATTN: INVESTORS! 3 rental properties! Property consists of 1.92 acres/ 3 parcels of land: 1 with a 3/1 house, 1 with 2 mobile homes each have 2/2 and an adjoining parcel of land where additional mobile homes could be added. All three properties have tenants, combined income is $3000 per month. They are all on a month to month basis. House can be shown by appt. The mobile homes cannot be shown until under contract. The 3 parcels of land are marked with pink survey stakes on left side of dirt road. See attached map for details.

18. 2026-03-23
    price $320,000 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    ATTN: INVESTORS! 3 rental properties! Property consists of 1.92 acres/ 3 parcels of land: 1 with a 3/1 house, 1 with 2 mobile homes each have 2/2 and an adjoining parcel of land where additional mobile homes could be added. All three properties have tenants, combined income is $3000 per month. They are all on a month to month basis. House can be shown by appt. The mobile homes cannot be shown until under contract. The 3 parcels of land are marked with pink survey stakes on left side of dirt road. See attached map for details.

19. 2026-02-05
    listed $349,000 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    ATTN: INVESTORS! 3 rental properties! Property consists of 1.92 acres/ 3 parcels of land: 1 with a 3/1 house, 1 with 2 mobile homes each have 2/2 and an adjoining parcel of land where additional mobile homes could be added. All three properties have tenants, combined income is $3000 per month. They are all on a month to month basis. House can be shown by appt. The mobile homes cannot be shown until under contract. The 3 parcels of land are marked with pink survey stakes on left side of dirt road. See attached map for details.

20. 2025-02-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,511 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,088/yr (+$91/mo · 72.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$1,511
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$102
• After-tax cash flow: $2,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-59.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $142,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $320,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-05 Listed $349,000 GTAR
• 2025-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,511 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.