12967 Vanderwood Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$189,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1971 0.25 ac lot $128/sqft · 30% below area Est $271k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home that truly checks all the boxes! Featuring stylish hardwood-style flooring and a cozy fireplace, this home offers both comfort and charm throughout. The spacious primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage. Enjoy the added bonus of a walk-out basement and relax on the deck overlooking a private, wooded backdrop—perfect for entertaining or unwinding. With a 2-car garage and great overall layout, this home offers the space and features today’s buyers are looking for. Being sold as-is, but full of value and move-in ready appeal—don’t miss this one!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Walk-out basement
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• HARDWOOD-STYLE FLOORING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-OUT BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $190k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $183,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,875
• List price: $189,500
• Delta: -30.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4424 Cloverbrook Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+3%)	5mo	$249,900	$164	88
4423 Cloverbrook Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-2%)	8mo	$275,000	$189	88
35 Wild Ridge/hazeltine	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+9%)	1mo	$317,742	$197	76
Lot 8 Wild Ridge/ Hazeltine	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+9%)	6mo	$334,967	$208	72
6 Fairway Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-5%)	13mo	$194,900	$139	68
1 Club Grounds North Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-4%)	4mo	$209,900	$147	58
12250 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,524 (+3%)	12mo	$200,000	$131	57
3870 Woodcrest Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+4%)	7mo	$279,900	$182	55
1515 Lisa Dr	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,443 (-2%)	8mo	$195,000	$135	53
12922 High Crest St	0.55mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,566 (+6%)	2mo	$320,000	$204	52
4359 Blythewood Dr	0.37mi	3/3.0	1,684 (+14%)	5mo	$250,000	$148	51
13011 Mystic Bend Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+11%)	10mo	$245,000	$149	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $122,074
• Equity at exit: $170,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $373,048
• Equity at exit: $368,157

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,829/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $189,500

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	1d	17	0.48mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	0.91mi
3930 Belcroft Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1408	$1,935	$1.37	43d	1	0.92mi
2075 Cordoba Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,850	$1.21	14d	1	0.93mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	1.08mi
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	22d	1	1.12mi
3 Cantabrian Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,881	$1.31	14d	1	1.13mi
2990 Santiago Dr Florissant, MO	2.0	2.0	984	$1,200	$1.22	43d	1	1.36mi
1600 Horseshoe Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,550	$1.18	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Active 633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (633 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home that truly checks all the boxes! Featuring stylish hardwood-style flooring and a cozy fireplace, this home offers both comfort and charm throughout. The spacious primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage. Enjoy the added bonus of a walk-out basement and relax on the deck overlooking a private, wooded backdrop—perfect for entertaining or unwinding. With a 2-car garage and great overall layout, this home offers the space and features today’s buyers are looking for. Being sold as-is, but full of value and move-in ready appeal—don’t miss this one!

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (633 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home that truly checks all the boxes! Featuring stylish hardwood-style flooring and a cozy fireplace, this home offers both comfort and charm throughout. The spacious primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage. Enjoy the added bonus of a walk-out basement and relax on the deck overlooking a private, wooded backdrop—perfect for entertaining or unwinding. With a 2-car garage and great overall layout, this home offers the space and features today’s buyers are looking for. Being sold as-is, but full of value and move-in ready appeal—don’t miss this one!

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $189,500 Active 633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (633 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath home that truly checks all the boxes! Featuring stylish hardwood-style flooring and a cozy fireplace, this home offers both comfort and charm throughout. The spacious primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage. Enjoy the added bonus of a walk-out basement and relax on the deck overlooking a private, wooded backdrop—perfect for entertaining or unwinding. With a 2-car garage and great overall layout, this home offers the space and features today’s buyers are looking for. Being sold as-is, but full of value and move-in ready appeal—don’t miss this one!

4. 2020-09-28
   price $59,500 29-char remark

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   For comparable purposes only.

5. 2020-06-11
   soldstatus $90,000
6. 2020-06-03
   soldstatus $79,750
7. 2020-05-19
   price $49,500 29-char remark

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   For comparable purposes only.

8. 2020-05-19
   listed $44,500 29-char remark

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   For comparable purposes only.

9. 2020-04-30
   soldstatus Closed 29-char remark

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   For comparable purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,829 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,829 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$2,829
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$1,198
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $2,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+325.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $189,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-28 Price Changed $59,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $79,750 Public Records
• 2020-05-19 Price Changed $49,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-19 Listed $44,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,829 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.