624 E 5th St · Natchitoches, LA 71457

$187,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily · 159 Days on market

Built 1981 8,712 sqft lot $104/sqft · 16% below area Est $222k · 16% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly updated 4 bedroom brick home in East Natchitoches. Features fresh paint and flooring as well as a new stove, hot water heater, and PEX water lines. There is also an extra large laundry room, a fenced back yard, and two driveways. The property is conveniently located a short distance from schools, medical, shopping, and restaurants.

Key facts

• New stove
• Updated brick home
• Fresh paint

Tags

• UPDATED BRICK HOME
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW STOVE
• HOT WATER HEATER
• PEX WATER LINES
• EXTRA LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-691/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Natchitoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#382 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, housing D+.
• Natchitoches Parish (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 98 in LA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Natchitoches Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natchitoches County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,400 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,576
• List price: $187,000
• Delta: -15.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Adelaide St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-3%)	0mo	$227,500	$131	86
620 East Fifth St. St	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,923 (+7%)	6mo	$223,000	$116	82
414 Adelaide St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-8%)	2mo	$158,000	$95	75
627 E 5th St	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,624 (-10%)	10mo	$217,000	$134	74
1011 Williams Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,842 (+3%)	5mo	$272,000	$148	64
128 Lodi St	0.74mi	4/2.5	1,884 (+5%)	1mo	$265,000	$141	55
201 Carver Ave	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,594 (-11%)	3mo	$215,000	$135	50
1041 Washington St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-13%)	2mo	$380,000	$242	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-34,032
• Equity at exit: $27,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-34,607
• Equity at exit: $16,168

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71457

• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,204/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,467

Max offer price $176,823

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-5	+0% $-58	+5% $-111	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-113	+0% $-58	+5% $-3	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-10	base $-58	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $187,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $187,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $187,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   price $187,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $194,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $194,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $194,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 136 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    price $194,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Newly updated 4 bedroom brick home in East Natchitoches. Features fresh paint and flooring as well as a new stove, hot water heater, and PEX water lines. There is also an extra large laundry room, a fenced back yard, and two driveways. The property is conveniently located a short distance from schools, medical, shopping, and restaurants.

20. 2026-01-13
    listed $209,000 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Newly updated 4 bedroom brick home in East Natchitoches. Features fresh paint and flooring as well as a new stove, hot water heater, and PEX water lines. There is also an extra large laundry room, a fenced back yard, and two driveways. The property is conveniently located a short distance from schools, medical, shopping, and restaurants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$1,204
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$4,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$960
• After-tax cash flow: $269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchitoches Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201140
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -27.00%
• Median HH income: $30,204
• Composite: 26.36/100
• National rank: #7235
• State rank: #41 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natchitoches

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #23935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchitoches, LA
• City population: 27,214
• Population (ZIP): 25,485

Population outlook (Natchitoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,130 people
• By 2030: 37,412 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,550 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 33,580 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 29,268 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 23,909 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 45% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Natchitoches

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.2% · R 60.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -7.3pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+11.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+7.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.84%
• Current HPI: 103.9202
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $194,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $209,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,204 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.