4126 Cardoon Dr · Elfers, FL 34653

$93,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1980 0.90 ac lot Est $69k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity. 2 bedroom 1 and half bath manufactured home. Features screen in porch and separate outside laundry room. Needs a little loving, but what do you want for this price? Come and check it out!

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Eat in kitchen
• Owned land

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• BREEZEWAY TO UTILITY ROOM
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• HOT AND COLD WATER SUPPLY
• OWNED LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1-MH (Residential single family housing); Lot size: 0.9 acres
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Virginia Park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 2 carport spaces
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured mobile home (residential); Attached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Wood fencing enclosing yard; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $646 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,695 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.64%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,216
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4100 Cardoon Dr	0.05mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	21mo	$60,000	$89	79
5713 Sunshine Park Dr	0.68mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	4mo	$69,000	$103	63
4239 Memphis Ave	0.42mi	2/1.5	600 (-11%)	2mo	$70,000	$117	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $6,967
• Equity at exit: $13,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $24,781
• Equity at exit: $8,084

Cash invested: $26,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34653

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$490
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $93,500

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,375
• Closing costs: $2,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5844 Sunshine Park Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	672	$1,100	$1.64	2d	1	0.60mi
6807 Porter Rd Unit PCG G-202 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	605	$1,025	$1.69	4d	1	0.91mi
7425 Trouble Creek Rd New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,604	$1.97	1d	15	1.17mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	1.18mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.18mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.20mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.21mi
5333 Pasadena Dr Unit 5333 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	17d	1	1.25mi
4744 Azalea Dr #204 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	736	$1,100	$1.49	20d	1	1.26mi
4722 Kennedy Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	504	$850	$1.69	24d	1	1.31mi
7320 Broadmoor Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$1,715	$2.24	1d	59	1.33mi
5149 Tangelo Dr Apt B New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	350	$1,195	$3.41	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $93,500
3. 2026-03-11
   listed $95,000 Active
4. 2020-12-02
   soldstatus $66,875
5. 2018-10-26
   soldstatus $26,000
6. 2018-10-05
   soldstatus $26,000 Sold 217-char remark

   Show marketing remark (217 chars)

   Great investment opportunity. 2 bedroom 1 and half bath manufactured home. Features screen in porch and separate outside laundry room. Needs a little loving, but what do you want for this price? Come and check it out!

7. 2018-09-15
   status Pending 217-char remark

   Show marketing remark (217 chars)

   Great investment opportunity. 2 bedroom 1 and half bath manufactured home. Features screen in porch and separate outside laundry room. Needs a little loving, but what do you want for this price? Come and check it out!

8. 2018-09-14
   listed $34,900 Active 217-char remark

   Show marketing remark (217 chars)

   Great investment opportunity. 2 bedroom 1 and half bath manufactured home. Features screen in porch and separate outside laundry room. Needs a little loving, but what do you want for this price? Come and check it out!

9. 2015-02-03
   historical Contingent - Other Contract Contingencies
10. 2015-01-05
    price $27,000
11. 2014-12-23
    price $37,000
12. 2014-11-26
    listed $39,900 Active
13. 2005-03-15
    soldstatus $35,000
14. 2005-01-11
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,241
• − Management: −$1,241
• − Depreciation: −$2,720
• Taxable income: $3,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$860
• After-tax cash flow: $4,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,945
• Household income: $49,563
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1439.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.10%
• Current HPI: 324.6519
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+167.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $93,500 HCAR
• 2026-03-11 Listed $95,000 HCAR
• 2020-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $66,875 Public Records
• 2018-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-05 Sold (MLS) $26,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-14 Listed $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-03 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-05 Price Changed $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-23 Price Changed $37,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-26 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-15 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-11 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.