1184 Myrtle Dr · Butler, TN 37640

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.50 ac lot Est $263k · 24% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to paradise in the mountains of Butler, TN! This stunning 2-year-old home is nestled in the exclusive Laurel Mountain Estates private community, offering country living at its finest. Just half a mile from the sparkling waters of Watauga Lake, this property boasts breathtaking mountain views that will take your breath away. Step inside and be greeted by modern amenities, and plenty of natural light throughout. The open-concept layout is perfect for entertaining guests or simply relaxing with loved ones. The kitchen features all appliances, countertops, and a large island for meal preparation. After a long day of hiking or boating on the lake, retire to your suite complete with bath

Key facts

• Watauga lake
• Large island
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• WATAUGA LAKE
• BREATHTAKING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 150 x 150 (0.5 acre); Zoning: Residential; Subdivision: Laurel Mountain Estates; Directions: GPS 1184 Laurel Mountain Estate (limited reception area)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking; Driveway; Gravel parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Shared well (see remarks); Water connected; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available/connected; Sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured house (double wide); One level; Residential single family
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Outbuilding; Property has a view; Topography: cleared, partially wooded, sloped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Vinyl; See remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Laminate countertops; Crawl space basement; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 1.7% in Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnson County (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #69 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Roan Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 345 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #107 of 333 statewide, top 33%, 284 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 643 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.12%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,424
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
318 Wayne Laws Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-15%)	7mo	$185,000	$162	46
3564 Little Dry Run Rd	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	23mo	$275,000	$196	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,182
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $24,028
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37640

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,794

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $199,000 Active
17. 2025-01-15
    historical
18. 2024-07-15
    listed $269,000 Active
19. 2024-02-28
    price $289,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,472
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$353
• After-tax cash flow: $4,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-year-old home in Laurel Mountain Estates offers modern amenities and a great location. Simple exterior updates and landscaping can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both add outdoor lighting — enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both add outdoor lighting — enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County
• NCES district ID: 4702160
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $31,298
• Composite: 23.58/100
• National rank: #7852
• State rank: #69 of 139 in TN

Livability — Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,343

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,842 people
• By 2030: 16,158 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 14,682 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 13,306 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 11,087 · -34.2%
• By 2100: 9,360 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 15.0% · R 84.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+67.3 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.70%
• Current HPI: 376.3439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-31.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $199,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-01-15 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $269,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $289,900 TVRMLS