14068 Pond View Dr · Sherwood Shores, TX 73439

$339,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2020 0.61 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Twin Ponds addition near Lake Texoma, this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and lake-area living! Featuring two living areas, there’s plenty of room for entertaining family and friends or relaxing after a day on the lake. Enjoy outdoor living with both a covered front porch and covered back patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. The property also includes a 20x30 metal garage/shop plus an additional shop/garage, providing excellent storage for boats, vehicles, lake toys, or hobbies. A circle drive adds convenience and great curb appeal. Conveniently located near Buncombe Creek Resort Marina and The Twisted Anc

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 20x30 metal garage
• Circle drive

Tags

• TWIN PONDS ADDITION
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• 20X30 METAL GARAGE
• CIRCLE DRIVE
• NEAR THE TWISTED ANCHOR GRILL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks; Gutters (community features)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 3 garage spaces; RV access/parking; Boat parking; Garage includes storage and workshop
• Security: Smoke detector(s); No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (rural); Aerobic septic
• Home design: Single-story; Manufactured double wide; Faces south; Entry on main level
• Construction: Manufactured construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Crawlspace / permanent foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio; Rain gutters; Second garage; Porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Plumbed for ice maker; Electric oven and range connections
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Laminate counters; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Storm door(s); Vinyl window frames; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.9% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kingston Es (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 845 statewide, top 25%, 620 students, 0% FRL); Kingston Ms (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #57 of 345 statewide, top 18%, 286 students, 0% FRL); Kingston Hs (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 362 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 76% district-wide (76 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $339k implies a 717% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $219,823 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $164,621
• Equity at exit: $305,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $500,106
• Equity at exit: $658,602

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,553/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,593

Max offer price $283,917

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-216	+0% $-312	+5% $-408	+10% $-504
Rent	-10% $-485	-5% $-399	+0% $-312	+5% $-225	+10% $-138
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-226	base $-312	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $339,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $339,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $339,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $339,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,000 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $339,000 Active
19. 2023-10-12
    historical
20. 2023-08-20
    listed $350,000 Active
21. 2015-07-10
    soldstatus $41,500
22. 2007-07-19
    soldstatus $25,000
23. 2006-06-01
    soldstatus $15,000
24. 2004-10-05
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,553 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,204 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,651/yr (+$388/mo · 299.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$1,553
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$9,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2087.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $339,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2023-10-12 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2023-08-20 Listed $350,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2015-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 2007-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,553 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.