433-435 Pennsylvania Ave · Cumberland, MD 21502

$149,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · Townhouse public records · 712 Days on market

Built 1910 3,366 sqft lot $84/sqft · 131% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXCELLENT INVESTMENT DUPLEX WITH LONG TERM TENANTS - BOTH SIDES ARE HUD APPROVED - LEASES ARE MONTH TO MONTH - APPROX GROSS $12,560 - TENANTS PAY UTILITIES. LEASES ARE MONTH TO MONTH

Key facts

• Long term tenants
• Hud approved
• 3,366 sq ft lot

Tags

• LONG TERM TENANTS
• HUD APPROVED
• MONTH TO MONTH LEASES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 712 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $150k implies a 328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 712 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.50%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,831
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 131.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,515
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $75,003
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $618/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
630 Hill Top Dr Cumberland, MD	5.0	1.5	2300	$1,495	$0.65	43d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 712 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 711 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 710 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 709 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 708 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 706 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 705 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 702 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 701 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 211-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 700 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 695 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 694 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 693 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 692 DOM
16. 2025-08-13
    status Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    EXCELLENT INVESTMENT DUPLEX WITH LONG TERM TENANTS - BOTH SIDES ARE HUD APPROVED - LEASES ARE MONTH TO MONTH - APPROX GROSS $12,560 - TENANTS PAY UTILITIES. LEASES ARE MONTH TO MONTH

17. 2025-07-31
    historical 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    EXCELLENT INVESTMENT DUPLEX WITH LONG TERM TENANTS - BOTH SIDES ARE HUD APPROVED - LEASES ARE MONTH TO MONTH - APPROX GROSS $12,560 - TENANTS PAY UTILITIES. LEASES ARE MONTH TO MONTH

18. 2024-06-24
    listed $149,900 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    EXCELLENT INVESTMENT DUPLEX WITH LONG TERM TENANTS - BOTH SIDES ARE HUD APPROVED - LEASES ARE MONTH TO MONTH - APPROX GROSS $12,560 - TENANTS PAY UTILITIES. LEASES ARE MONTH TO MONTH

19. 2001-12-19
    soldstatus $35,000
20. 2001-12-03
    soldstatus $35,000
21. 2001-10-31
    historical
22. 2001-08-13
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $618 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,126 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 82.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$618
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$491
• After-tax cash flow: $3,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+233.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-24 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-03 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MRIS
• 2001-10-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-08-13 Listed $45,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $618 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.