5317 Hickory Rd · Matoaca, VA 23803

$325,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1920 5.10 ac lot $172/sqft · 14% below area Est $379k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision to life at 5317 Hickory Rd, an exceptional opportunity set on 5.11 ACRES in Chesterfield County. This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath ranch offers nearly 1,900 square feet and is ready for a full renovation, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to design and customize their dream home from the ground up. With RENOVATE PROPERTIES SELLING IN THE $500,000 range, there's plenty of margin here! Outside, the property truly sets itself apart. A DETACHED OVERSIZED 4+ CAR GARAGE with an enclosed workshop area provides endless possibilities for hobbyists, contractors, or additional storage. Two additional outbuildings offer flexible space for equipment, storage, or even a

Key facts

• Former country store
• 5.11 acres
• Private setting

Tags

• 5.11 ACRES
• ENCLOSED WORKSHOP AREA
• TWO ADDITIONAL OUTBUILDINGS
• FORMER COUNTRY STORE
• PRIVATE SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Direct access garage; Oversized, unfinished 4-car garage with workshop area; Driveway parking (unpaved)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Approximate year built; Center-hall layout; Resale condition; Zoned A
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Drywall interior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Hot tub / spa; Above-ground pool; Outbuildings and storage shed; Fenced backyard; Unpaved driveway; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Propane water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Partial carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Propane heating; Central cooling (heat pump)
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Ceiling fans; Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet; Wired for data; Primary bedroom with private bath; Main-level primary bedroom; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Water heater (propane)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (32.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (40.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 19 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,408 (40.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.95%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,050
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -14.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-19,401
• Equity at exit: $118,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $28,616
• Equity at exit: $163,715

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,395/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,687

Max offer price $218,535

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20308 Hickory Branch Dr South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,850	$1.25	3d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $325,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $330,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $330,000 Active 1593-char remark
16. 2026-02-05
    soldstatus $260,000
17. 2009-09-22
    historical
18. 2009-09-22
    historical
19. 2009-09-22
    historical
20. 2009-09-22
    historical
21. 2009-09-22
    historical
22. 2008-07-23
    historical
23. 2008-07-23
    historical
24. 2008-06-10
    listed $289,950
25. 2008-06-10
    listed $289,950
26. 2008-06-09
    historical
27. 2008-03-08
    listed $299,900
28. 2008-03-08
    listed $299,900
29. 2008-03-07
    historical
30. 2008-03-07
    historical
31. 2008-02-18
    listed $299,950
32. 2008-02-18
    listed $299,950
33. 2008-02-01
    historical
34. 2007-11-28
    listed $299,950
35. 2007-11-28
    listed $299,950
36. 2007-11-24
    historical
37. 2007-10-23
    listed $299,950
38. 2007-10-23
    listed $299,950
39. 2007-10-21
    historical
40. 2007-07-23
    listed $299,950
41. 2007-07-23
    listed $299,950
42. 2007-05-02
    historical
43. 2007-05-02
    historical
44. 2007-04-02
    listed $319,950
45. 2007-04-02
    listed $319,950
46. 2007-01-31
    historical
47. 2006-10-18
    listed $329,950
48. 2006-10-18
    listed $329,950
49. 2006-06-07
    soldstatus $292,500
50. 2006-05-30
    soldstatus $292,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,395 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,395 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,395
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$13,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+550.0% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $325,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $330,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Sold (MLS) $260,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-07-23 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-07-23 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-06-10 Listed $289,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-06-10 Listed $289,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-06-09 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-03-08 Listed $299,900 CVRMLS
• 2008-03-08 Listed $299,900 CVRMLS
• 2008-03-07 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-03-07 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-02-18 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-02-18 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-02-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-11-28 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-28 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-24 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-10-23 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-10-23 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-10-21 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-07-23 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-07-23 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-05-02 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-05-02 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-04-02 Listed $319,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-04-02 Listed $319,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-01-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2006-10-18 Listed $329,950 CVRMLS
• 2006-10-18 Listed $329,950 CVRMLS
• 2006-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $292,500 Public Records
• 2006-05-30 Sold (MLS) $292,500 CVRMLS
• 2006-05-30 Sold (MLS) $292,500 CVRMLS
• 2006-03-08 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 2006-03-08 Listed $299,950 CVRMLS
• 1990-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,395 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.