1555 Choctaw Trl · Churchill, MI 48661

$87,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition $89/sqft · 58% below area $52/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated on three spacious lots in the desirable Lake Ogemaw subdivision with private lake access. This property offers a perfect blend of rustic character and modern style, featuring cedar siding and a modern barn-style interior. Enjoy an open and inviting layout ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The roof was replaced in 2016, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With access to beautiful Lake Ogemaw, you can enjoy boating, fishing, and recreation just moments away. Plenty of outdoor space for gardening, gatherings, or adding garage or storage options. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a peaceful getaway, this property offers the best of northern Michigan living.

Key facts

• Cedar siding
• Private lake access
• Built 1987

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE ACCESS
• CEDAR SIDING
• MODERN BARN-STYLE INTERIOR
• OPEN AND INVITING LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE FOR GARDENING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $87k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $76,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.42%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,282
• List price: $87,000
• Delta: -58.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1580 N Ogemaw Trl	0.22mi	2/1.0	960 (-2%)	8mo	$275,000	$286	78
1623 N Ogemaw Trl	0.22mi	2/1.0	885 (-10%)	12mo	$150,000	$169	61
2832 E Flint Ct	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,080 (+10%)	12mo	$325,000	$301	61
1737 Whitetail Ct	0.51mi	2/1.0	936 (-4%)	12mo	$175,000	$187	57
3145 Rifle River Trl	0.72mi	2/1.0	864 (-12%)	19mo	$89,500	$104	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $13,649
• Equity at exit: $12,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $47,760
• Equity at exit: $7,522

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48661

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $87,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $87,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $87,000 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated on three spacious lots in the desirable Lake Ogemaw subdivision with private lake access. This property offers a perfect blend of rustic character and modern style, featuring cedar siding and a modern barn-style interior. Enjoy an open and inviting layout ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The roof was replaced in 2016, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With access to beautiful Lake Ogemaw, you can enjoy boating, fishing, and recreation just moments away. Plenty of outdoor space for gardening, gatherings, or adding garage or storage options. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a peaceful getaway, this property offers the best of northern Michigan living.

17. 2026-03-19
    price $95,000 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated on three spacious lots in the desirable Lake Ogemaw subdivision with private lake access. This property offers a perfect blend of rustic character and modern style, featuring cedar siding and a modern barn-style interior. Enjoy an open and inviting layout ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The roof was replaced in 2016, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With access to beautiful Lake Ogemaw, you can enjoy boating, fishing, and recreation just moments away. Plenty of outdoor space for gardening, gatherings, or adding garage or storage options. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a peaceful getaway, this property offers the best of northern Michigan living.

18. 2026-02-13
    listed $120,000 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated on three spacious lots in the desirable Lake Ogemaw subdivision with private lake access. This property offers a perfect blend of rustic character and modern style, featuring cedar siding and a modern barn-style interior. Enjoy an open and inviting layout ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The roof was replaced in 2016, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With access to beautiful Lake Ogemaw, you can enjoy boating, fishing, and recreation just moments away. Plenty of outdoor space for gardening, gatherings, or adding garage or storage options. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence or a peaceful getaway, this property offers the best of northern Michigan living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable income: $4,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$988
• After-tax cash flow: $4,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires significant exterior and interior repairs, along with landscaping improvements to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Weathered and faded
• Major interior walls and paint — No visible condition
• Major bathrooms — No visible condition
• Major kitchen — No visible condition
• Major landscaping — Sparse and bare

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscape — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both interior paint and updates — Enhances interior condition and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered and faded	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and paint · No visible condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and bare	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscape — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both interior paint and updates — Enhances interior condition and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Branch-Rose City Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635850
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,145
• Composite: 29.15/100
• National rank: #6580
• State rank: #306 of 540 in MI

Livability — Churchill

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,744

Population outlook (Ogemaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,373 people
• By 2030: 18,348 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 16,176 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 14,294 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 11,280 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 8,942 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogemaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.4% · R 70.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+6.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.99%
• Current HPI: 253.6665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-27.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $87,000 WWMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $95,000 WWMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $120,000 WWMLS