12509 Oak Pick Ter · Memphis, FL 34221

$330,940

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $403k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An open floorplan is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen in this single-story home. Separate from three secondary bedrooms, the serene owner's suite features a spa-like private bathroom designed for tranquil shared living. Completing the home is a two-car garage for storage and other versatile needs.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price noted (listing details available)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Hartford plan); Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,936 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Hartford plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $331k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $277,805 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $402,688
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6325 35th Avenue Cir E	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,952 (+1%)	1mo	$406,000	$208	59
3209 77th Ct E	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (-3%)	10mo	$460,000	$245	55
3415 70th Ct E	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,784 (-8%)	6mo	$395,000	$221	50
3212 77th Ct E	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+10%)	14mo	$381,000	$180	44
3409 77th Ct E	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+10%)	12mo	$375,000	$177	42
3425 70th Gln E	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-14%)	0mo	$415,000	$251	39
6324 35th Avenue Cir E	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,693 (-13%)	11mo	$330,000	$195	36
3212 70th Ct E	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-14%)	16mo	$425,000	$257	32
3303 63rd St E	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (-9%)	17mo	$355,000	$201	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-67,610
• Equity at exit: $49,344

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-97,744
• Equity at exit: $28,614

Cash invested: $92,663 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,735
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,964/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,895

Max offer price $317,571

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,735
• Closing costs: $9,928
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,990	$1.35	3d	1	0.02mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,445	$2.48	3d	220	0.02mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,044	$1.85	23d	1	0.02mi
6010 33rd Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$2,115	$1.64	3d	1	1.00mi
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	23d	1	1.13mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	21d	1	1.25mi
3303 54th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	3d	1	1.31mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$1,800	$0.85	23d	1	1.32mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	21d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,940 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,940 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $330,940 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,840 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,840 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,840 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,840 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,840 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $330,840 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,640 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,640 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $330,640 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,540 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $339,540 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,538
• − Property taxes: −$4,964
• − Insurance: −$1,655
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − Depreciation: −$9,627
• Taxable loss: −$6,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,627
• After-tax cash flow: $519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home features a modern open floor plan and two bathrooms, making it a good candidate for rental or resale. The exterior and interior are in good condition, with minor maintenance needed for painting and replacing the ceiling fan.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B