12509 Oak Pick Ter · Palmetto, FL 34221

$326,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $168/sqft · 30% below area Est $466k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An open floorplan is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen in this single-story home. Separate from three secondary bedrooms, the serene owner's suite features a spa-like private bathroom designed for tranquil shared living. Completing the home is a two-car garage for storage and other versatile needs.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $326k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,173 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $466,270
• List price: $326,000
• Delta: -30.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6018 Blue Paloma	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-6%)	2mo	$326,140	$179	67
11414 Casella Pl	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,886 (-3%)	11mo	$475,000	$252	48
12809 Dockyard Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-9%)	5mo	$399,000	$226	42
11429 Casella Pl	0.67mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,138 (+10%)	5mo	$745,000	$348	36
11406 Casella Pl	0.73mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,100 (+8%)	11mo	$475,000	$226	32
11408 Trivio Ter	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,829 (-6%)	23mo	$429,900	$235	30
11528 Viani Ter	0.72mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,100 (+8%)	22mo	$660,380	$314	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-79,555
• Equity at exit: $48,608

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-122,744
• Equity at exit: $28,187

Cash invested: $91,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $343,265 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 17 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +43.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,552 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$408 /mo · $4,890/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,936

Max offer price $282,082

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-191	+0% $-304	+5% $-416	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-404	+0% $-304	+5% $-203	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-221	base $-304	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,500
• Closing costs: $9,780
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11946 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	65d	1	0.38mi
11946 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	61d	1	0.38mi
5924 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	69d	1	0.41mi
11832 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,025	$1.29	47d	1	0.43mi
11820 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,100	$1.52	65d	1	0.44mi
6011 Whetstone Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,000	$1.45	52d	1	0.46mi
11787 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	70d	1	0.51mi
11779 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,100	$1.51	41d	1	0.51mi
11720 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	73d	1	0.53mi
11731 Glenside Ter Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,100	$1.51	35d	1	0.54mi
11905 71st Pl E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2197	$2,850	$1.30	27d	1	0.69mi
11757 71st Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2184	$2,699	$1.24	65d	1	0.79mi
6431 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,695	$1.19	73d	1	0.81mi
11331 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,090	$1.25	61d	1	0.83mi
11332 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,300	$1.38	73d	1	0.84mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	73d	1	0.87mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	73d	1	0.90mi
5912 Laurelcrest Gln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,650	$1.39	35d	1	0.97mi
5312 Caserta Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	2275	$4,500	$1.98	73d	1	0.98mi
7518 117th Ln E Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	2156	$3,100	$1.44	73d	1	0.98mi
11075 65th Ter E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,100	$1.26	32d	1	0.99mi
6219 Springmont Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2574	$3,023	$1.17	33d	1	1.22mi
6417 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,995	$1.45	17d	1	1.27mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	73d	1	1.28mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price noted (listing details available)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Hartford plan)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,936 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Hartford plan)

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-29
   days on market $326,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-28
   days on market $326,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-27
   pricedays on market $326,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-27
   days on market $331,040 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-25
   pricedays on market $331,040 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-22
   days on market $330,940 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-22
   days on market $330,940 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,940 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,940 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $330,940 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-15
    days on market $330,840 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-13
    days on market $330,840 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-13
    days on market $330,840 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-10
    days on market $330,840 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-09
    days on market $330,840 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $330,840 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,640 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,640 Active 41 DOM
19. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $330,640 Active 40 DOM
20. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,540 Active 39 DOM
21. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $339,540 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,261
• − Property taxes: −$4,890
• − Insurance: −$2,428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,450
• − Management: −$2,450
• − Depreciation: −$9,484
• Taxable loss: −$9,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,242
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,680–$29,040 screening

This single-story home features a modern open floor plan and two bathrooms, making it a good candidate for rental or resale. The exterior and interior are in good condition, with minor maintenance needed for painting and replacing the ceiling fan.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price noted (listing details available)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Hartford plan)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,936 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Hartford plan)