3536 Nelson Ln · Drexel, NC 28655

$199,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2004 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Private and move-in ready 3BR/2BA home situated on 1.2 wooded acres offering space, flexibility, and a peaceful setting just outside of town. This home features an open living area, large kitchen with abundant cabinet space, stainless range, ample countertop workspace, and a dedicated dining area perfect for everyday living. The spacious primary suite includes a large ensuite bath with double vanity, garden tub, separate shower, and generous closet space. Fresh, clean interiors with updated flooring and neutral finishes make it easy for the next owner to move right in and make it their own. Enjoy outdoor living with both front and side decks, ideal for relaxing, grilling, or entertaining wh

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; Septic installed; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence (Manufactured doublewide); Residential property; One story; Entry on main level
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Vinyl exterior; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a doublewide
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Side porch; Cleared yard; Corner lot; Wooded areas; Asphalt/paved road access; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Bar fridge; Dishwasher; Electric range; Exhaust hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Garden tub
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Inside utility room on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($368/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#208 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burke County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #89 of 178 in NC (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Drexel Elementary (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #477 of 1,410 statewide, top 35%, 438 students, 77% FRL); Heritage Middle (math 53% / reading 58%, grade B-, #76 of 475 statewide, top 16%, 453 students, 64% FRL); Jimmy C Draughn High School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 682 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Burke County in 2024 (94 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burke County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $200k implies a 1715% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,189 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,492
• Equity at exit: $29,776

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,382
• Equity at exit: $17,266

Cash invested: $55,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28655

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,047
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $199,700

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $87	+0% $31	+5% $-26	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $-31	+0% $31	+5% $92	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $81	base $31	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,925
• Closing costs: $5,991
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,700 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,700 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,700 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,700 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,700 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,700 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,700 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,700 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,700 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,700 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,700 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,700 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,700 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,700 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,700 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,700 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,700 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    listed $199,700 Active
19. 2026-04-29
    historical $199,700
20. 1990-03-12
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,638 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$764/yr (+$64/mo · 87.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,186
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$5,809
• Taxable loss: −$3,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $1,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700480
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,342
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4400
• State rank: #89 of 178 in NC

Livability — Drexel

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #10084

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burke County · 55,100 people
• City population: 457
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,100
• Household income: $57,713
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1145.0

Population outlook (Burke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,552 people
• By 2030: 84,123 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 78,165 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,099 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 56,264 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 44,742 · -48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.0% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.07%
• Current HPI: 362.0732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1715.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $199,700 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $199,700 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.