6550 Ponto Dr #154 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$150,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Built 1969 2,300 sqft lot $192/sqft · 86% below area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cheapest in park! Cozy updated, clean 2BR/1.5 BA Beach house in gated safe family park across the Pacific Ocean. Open living room to kitchen and dining area. Refrigerator/washer/dryer/ceiling fans stay. Build an upper deck over attached 2-car carport, convertible to garage for panoramic ocean view. Watch amazing changing sunset view to relax on existing lower deck. Listen to ocean waves rocking you to blissful sleep. Order a new custom manufactured home to replace it if that suits better in future. Enjoy full Clubhouse with pool. spa/sauna, kitchen, library, laundry room, TV/Game room, meeting room with fireplace. Just off Highway 5, Convenient location near all amenities including groceries, restaurants, retail outlet, hospitals, world-known resorts, top-rated schools and Palomar Airport. Leased land with no real estate property tax or hoa fees. Free use of community clubhouse, pool/spa, tv/game room, kitchen, laundry/library/meeting room with fireplace. Cheapest gated home in San Diego across the beach.

Key facts

• 2,300 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.78%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,059,100
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -85.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $150,611
• Equity at exit: $57,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.48×
• Total profit: $356,117
• Equity at exit: $80,744

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $2,197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,301	-5% $2,249	+0% $2,197	+5% $2,145	+10% $2,093
Rent	-10% $1,874	-5% $2,035	+0% $2,197	+5% $2,359	+10% $2,521
Rate	-1.0pp $2,273	-0.5pp $2,235	base $2,197	+0.5pp $2,158	+1.0pp $2,119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 Caminito Madrigal Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	897	$3,200	$3.57	11d	1	0.64mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	897	$4,500	$5.02	44d	1	0.68mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.5	897	$4,500	$5.02	44d	1	0.69mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,300	$4.48	44d	1	0.70mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit A Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$3,850	$4.01	5d	1	0.70mi
6677 Paseo Del Norte Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,500	$4.69	44d	1	0.71mi
6677 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	959	$3,950	$4.12	44d	1	0.71mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	2d	3	0.75mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	44d	1	0.76mi
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$3,775	$4.87	0d	9	0.84mi
1205 Aviara Pkwy Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	917	$4,880	$5.32	3d	42	1.37mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $150,000 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-04-18
   listed $150,000 Active 1021-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1021 chars)

   Cheapest in park! Cozy updated, clean 2BR/1.5 BA Beach house in gated safe family park across the Pacific Ocean. Open living room to kitchen and dining area. Refrigerator/washer/dryer/ceiling fans stay. Build an upper deck over attached 2-car carport, convertible to garage for panoramic ocean view. Watch amazing changing sunset view to relax on existing lower deck. Listen to ocean waves rocking you to blissful sleep. Order a new custom manufactured home to replace it if that suits better in future. Enjoy full Clubhouse with pool. spa/sauna, kitchen, library, laundry room, TV/Game room, meeting room with fireplace. Just off Highway 5, Convenient location near all amenities including groceries, restaurants, retail outlet, hospitals, world-known resorts, top-rated schools and Palomar Airport. Leased land with no real estate property tax or hoa fees. Free use of community clubhouse, pool/spa, tv/game room, kitchen, laundry/library/meeting room with fireplace. Cheapest gated home in San Diego across the beach.

10. 2025-01-18
    historical
11. 2025-01-18
    historical
12. 2025-01-18
    historical
13. 2022-01-11
    soldstatus $159,000 Sold
14. 2022-01-11
    soldstatus $59,000 Sold
15. 2021-12-30
    status Pending
16. 2021-11-21
    listed $80,000 Active
17. 2021-11-16
    status Pending
18. 2021-08-06
    price $179,000
19. 2021-06-07
    listed $199,990 Active
20. 2021-06-06
    historical $199,990
21. 2021-06-06
    listed $199,950
22. 2021-06-01
    listed $179,000
23. 2021-05-17
    historical
24. 2021-04-24
    listed $199,950 Active
25. 2021-04-08
    listed $199,950
26. 2016-05-09
    soldstatus $115,000
27. 2016-05-09
    soldstatus $115,000 Sold
28. 2016-01-23
    listed $125,000 Active
29. 2016-01-22
    listed $125,000
30. 2014-06-02
    historical
31. 2014-04-21
    price $193,000
32. 2014-04-21
    historical
33. 2014-04-05
    listed $229,000 Active
34. 2014-04-04
    listed $193,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,930
• − Management: −$3,930
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $25,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,119
• After-tax cash flow: $20,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.3% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $150,000 SDMLS
• 2025-01-18 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-01-18 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-01-18 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2022-01-11 Sold (MLS) $59,000 SDMLS
• 2022-01-11 Sold (MLS) $159,000 SDMLS
• 2021-12-30 Pending — SDMLS
• 2021-11-21 Listed $80,000 SDMLS
• 2021-11-16 Pending — SDMLS
• 2021-08-06 Price Changed $179,000 SDMLS
• 2021-06-07 Listed $199,990 SDMLS
• 2021-06-06 Coming Soon $199,990 SDMLS
• 2021-06-06 Listed $199,950 SDMLS
• 2021-06-01 Listed $179,000 SDMLS
• 2021-05-17 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2021-04-24 Listed $199,950 SDMLS
• 2021-04-08 Listed $199,950 SDMLS
• 2016-05-09 Sold (MLS) $115,000 SDMLS
• 2016-05-09 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CRMLS
• 2016-01-23 Listed $125,000 SDMLS
• 2016-01-22 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2014-06-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-04-21 Price Changed $193,000 SDMLS
• 2014-04-21 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2014-04-05 Listed $229,000 SDMLS
• 2014-04-04 Listed $193,000 CRMLS