584 Lyon St St · Elmira, NY 14904

$25,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1917 6,098 sqft lot ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 3 bedroom, bath & 1/2 SFR. All updated and made in the last 5 years including bathrooms, furnace, electric, carpet, paint, screen doors, deck, pool and so much more. Don't miss this gem.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1917

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $953 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 52.0% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 52.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 163.29%
• DSCR: 8.27
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,232
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
562 Baty St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+7%)	5mo	$111,702	$86	78
570 Cypress St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,307 (+8%)	1mo	$127,200	$97	76
825 Broadway St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,271 (+5%)	4mo	$65,000	$51	69
607 Partridge St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,218 (+0%)	3mo	$126,000	$103	68
421 Partridge St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,274 (+5%)	1mo	$47,000	$37	61
809 Chamberlain St	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,328 (+10%)	5mo	$138,192	$104	59
609 Decker Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-5%)	4mo	$45,000	$39	57
626 Decker Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+10%)	2mo	$142,000	$106	53
320 Soper St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,270 (+5%)	6mo	$80,000	$63	53
405 Balsam St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,081 (-11%)	5mo	$22,000	$20	50
628 Decker Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,062 (-12%)	3mo	$125,000	$118	49
317 Morrowfield Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-12%)	4mo	$35,500	$33	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.09×
• Total profit: $56,639
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.22×
• Total profit: $127,527
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $953

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
550 Spruce St Unit 303 Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	43d	1	0.33mi
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	43d	1	0.43mi
235 Allen St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	43d	1	0.67mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	43d	1	1.07mi
514 W 1st St Unit A Elmira, NY	4.0	1.0	1416	$1,275	$0.90	43d	1	1.21mi
454 W 2nd St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	43d	1	1.29mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2025-10-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-20
   status Active
3. 2025-10-16
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-05
   listed $25,000 Active
5. 2017-08-31
   soldstatus $90,000
6. 2017-08-30
   soldstatus $90,000 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Well maintained 3 bedroom, bath & 1/2 SFR. All updated and made in the last 5 years including bathrooms, furnace, electric, carpet, paint, screen doors, deck, pool and so much more. Don't miss this gem.

7. 2017-07-27
   listed $90,000 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Well maintained 3 bedroom, bath & 1/2 SFR. All updated and made in the last 5 years including bathrooms, furnace, electric, carpet, paint, screen doors, deck, pool and so much more. Don't miss this gem.

8. 2014-10-29
   historical
9. 2013-10-25
   listed $79,900
10. 2013-10-09
    historical
11. 2013-04-09
    listed $79,000
12. 2008-12-10
    soldstatus $58,000
13. 2008-12-08
    soldstatus $58,000
14. 2008-06-03
    listed $60,900
15. 2000-10-11
    soldstatus $44,000
16. 2000-10-05
    soldstatus $44,000
17. 2000-01-06
    listed $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $11,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,815
• After-tax cash flow: $8,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-49.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Pending — GBAOR
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — GBAOR
• 2025-10-16 Pending — GBAOR
• 2025-10-05 Listed $25,000 GBAOR
• 2017-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-30 Sold (MLS) $90,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-07-27 Listed $90,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-10-29 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2013-10-25 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-10-09 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2013-04-09 Listed $79,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-08 Sold (MLS) $58,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-06-03 Listed $60,900 UNYREIS
• 2000-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-05 Sold (MLS) $44,000 UNYREIS
• 2000-01-06 Listed $49,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,004 · -12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.