15086 Burley Ave SE · Burley, WA 98367

$340,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 632 Days on market

Built 1928 1.32 ac lot $232/sqft · 11% above area Est $614k · 45% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

First time on the market for this Burley Lagoon waterfront property.

Key facts

• Over an acre of land
• 500 feet of frontage
• 1.32 acre lot

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• 500 FEET OF FRONTAGE
• SINGLE LEVEL WITH BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Burley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#357 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• South Kitsap School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 291 in WA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 632 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $243,865 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 632 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $614,158
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -44.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1357 SE Fenton Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-4%)	6mo	$449,000	$320	55
15802 67th Ave NW	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,614 (+10%)	12mo	$662,300	$410	45
3091 SE Walnut Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,562 (+6%)	9mo	$701,000	$449	40
15353 Bethel Burley Rd SE	0.34mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,687 (+15%)	9mo	$525,000	$311	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-65,209
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-79,405
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98367

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,569

Max offer price $321,786

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-7	+0% $-103	+5% $-199	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-199	+0% $-103	+5% $-7	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $-17	base $-103	+0.5pp $-191	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1676 SE Pine Rd Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	1044	$2,400	$2.30	14d	1	0.49mi
6313 151st St NW Gig Harbor, WA	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,895	$1.74	45d	1	1.07mi
6321 151st St NW Unit 6317 Gig Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	987	$1,950	$1.98	22d	1	1.09mi
14512 Sherman Dr NW Gig Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	1450	$3,850	$2.66	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-23
   price $340,000
2. 2025-10-18
   price $350,000
3. 2025-08-25
   price $370,000
4. 2024-12-05
   price $390,000
5. 2024-09-01
   listed $410,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,332 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,072/yr (+$173/mo · 164.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 37% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$7,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,755
• After-tax cash flow: $518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5308160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $62,824
• Composite: 52.31/100
• National rank: #3445
• State rank: #71 of 291 in WA

Livability — Burley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #13620

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burley, WA
• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,756
• Household income: $115,482
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 595.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -441.02%
• Current HPI: 351.671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-17.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $340,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $370,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $390,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-01 Listed $410,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,260 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.