86 Pinecrest Dr Unit 11 E · Essex, VT 05452

$244,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Condo public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1978 $254/sqft · 11% below area Est $275k · 11% under $240/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover effortless living in this charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom condo that perfectly blends comfort, convenience, and versatility. Spanning two thoughtfully designed levels, this home offers a bright and inviting living space with a fluid floor plan that feels both open and functional. The first-floor laundry adds everyday ease, while the private back deck invites you to relax or entertain in your own outdoor space. A separate shed and privacy fencing provide additional storage and a sense of seclusion that's essential to condo living. Ideally located in the heart of Essex, you’re just moments from local shops, restaurants, and daily essentials, with a quick and easy commute to Burlington, Colchester, and surrounding areas. Whether you're seeking low-maintenance living as a homeowner or looking for a smart investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes - especially with rental potential available at the time of listing. Accessible, efficient, and full of charm, this is a space designed to fit a variety of lifestyles!

Key facts

• Separate shed
• Private back deck
• Privacy fencing

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• PRIVATE BACK DECK
• SEPARATE SHED
• PRIVACY FENCING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $244k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $212,728 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,399
• List price: $244,000
• Delta: -11.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-49,976
• Equity at exit: $36,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-56,596
• Equity at exit: $21,097

Cash invested: $68,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05452

• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,127 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,703/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$240
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,337

Max offer price $214,688

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-97	+0% $-166	+5% $-235	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-250	+0% $-166	+5% $-82	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-43	-0.5pp $-104	base $-166	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,000
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
85 Griffin Ln Essex Junction, VT	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,180	$2.18	23d	1	0.52mi
65 Griffin Ln Unit 65-102 Essex Junction, VT	2.0	1.0	960	$1,975	$2.06	46d	1	0.52mi
21 Pinecrest Dr Unit 305 Essex Junction, VT	1.0	1.0	761	$1,666	$2.19	45d	1	0.56mi
239 Autumn Pond Way Unit 239-104 Essex Junction, VT	1.0	1.0	788	$2,200	$2.79	45d	1	0.76mi
177 Autumn Pond Way Unit 177-208 Essex Junction, VT	2.0	2.0	933	$2,550	$2.73	45d	1	0.81mi
177 Autumn Pond Way Unit 177-301 Essex Junction, VT	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,600	$2.46	45d	1	0.81mi
375 Autumn Pond Way Essex Junction, VT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,650	$2.77	23d	9	0.84mi
2 Brickyard Rd Unit A Essex Junction, VT	1.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	23d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $240 · $2,880/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $244,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $244,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $244,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $244,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $244,000 1056-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

    Discover effortless living in this charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom condo that perfectly blends comfort, convenience, and versatility. Spanning two thoughtfully designed levels, this home offers a bright and inviting living space with a fluid floor plan that feels both open and functional. The first-floor laundry adds everyday ease, while the private back deck invites you to relax or entertain in your own outdoor space. A separate shed and privacy fencing provide additional storage and a sense of seclusion that's essential to condo living. Ideally located in the heart of Essex, you’re just moments from local shops, restaurants, and daily essentials, with a quick and easy commute to Burlington, Colchester, and surrounding areas. Whether you're seeking low-maintenance living as a homeowner or looking for a smart investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes - especially with rental potential available at the time of listing. Accessible, efficient, and full of charm, this is a space designed to fit a variety of lifestyles!

18. 2026-04-10
    price $264,000 1056-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

    Discover effortless living in this charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom condo that perfectly blends comfort, convenience, and versatility. Spanning two thoughtfully designed levels, this home offers a bright and inviting living space with a fluid floor plan that feels both open and functional. The first-floor laundry adds everyday ease, while the private back deck invites you to relax or entertain in your own outdoor space. A separate shed and privacy fencing provide additional storage and a sense of seclusion that's essential to condo living. Ideally located in the heart of Essex, you’re just moments from local shops, restaurants, and daily essentials, with a quick and easy commute to Burlington, Colchester, and surrounding areas. Whether you're seeking low-maintenance living as a homeowner or looking for a smart investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes - especially with rental potential available at the time of listing. Accessible, efficient, and full of charm, this is a space designed to fit a variety of lifestyles!

19. 2026-03-20
    listed $274,000 Active 1056-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

    Discover effortless living in this charming two-bedroom, one-bathroom condo that perfectly blends comfort, convenience, and versatility. Spanning two thoughtfully designed levels, this home offers a bright and inviting living space with a fluid floor plan that feels both open and functional. The first-floor laundry adds everyday ease, while the private back deck invites you to relax or entertain in your own outdoor space. A separate shed and privacy fencing provide additional storage and a sense of seclusion that's essential to condo living. Ideally located in the heart of Essex, you’re just moments from local shops, restaurants, and daily essentials, with a quick and easy commute to Burlington, Colchester, and surrounding areas. Whether you're seeking low-maintenance living as a homeowner or looking for a smart investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes - especially with rental potential available at the time of listing. Accessible, efficient, and full of charm, this is a space designed to fit a variety of lifestyles!

20. 2000-01-26
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,670 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: +$966/yr (+$81/mo · 35.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,668
• − Property taxes: −$2,703
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − HOA: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$6,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Essex

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 22,626
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 22,626
• Household income: $101,349
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 512.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.29%
• Current HPI: 310.788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+306.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $244,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $264,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $274,000 PrimeMLS
• 2000-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,703 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.