4207 Francis Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32209

$148,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1965 Est $127k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRICK OFF-GRADE; POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM; POSSIBLE HOOK-UP (AT BUYER'S COST) TO CITY WATER/SEWER. SELLING AS-IS; SPECIAL ADDENDUM REQ'D W/ ALL OFFERS; FULL CONTRACTS ONLY--NO VERBALS OR LOI'S; NO REPAIRS; NO FHA/VA; NO SURVEY CALL L.A. FOR FAX COPY OF ADDENDUM; CALL L.A. OR L.O. FOR LOCK-BOX COMBO TO SHOW!!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1965
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One level
• Exterior features: No private pool; Single-family use

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-295/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Washington Carver Elementary (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 290 students, 87% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); William M. Raines High School (math 14% / reading 13%, grade F, #616 of 667 statewide, top 92%, 1,217 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 49% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $148k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,773 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4266 Carroll Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,101 (+2%)	4mo	$130,000	$118	80
5846 Abelia Rd	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,058 (-2%)	2mo	$60,000	$57	80
5932 Floradale Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,030 (-5%)	10mo	$77,000	$75	73
2548 Wisteria St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,080 (0%)	8mo	$45,000	$42	67
5638 Vernon Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	963 (-11%)	2mo	$99,000	$103	59
3140 Breve Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-4%)	3mo	$125,000	$120	59
2904 Lippia Rd	0.26mi	4/1.0 (+1)	964 (-11%)	8mo	$68,000	$71	58
3181 Brasque Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+6%)	2mo	$182,900	$160	56
2936 Breve Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,156 (+7%)	7mo	$145,000	$125	56
4225 Homer Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	924 (-14%)	1mo	$104,150	$113	48
6217 Lobelia St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,166 (+8%)	9mo	$231,500	$199	43
5319 Bunche Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	940 (-13%)	8mo	$138,000	$147	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-27,066
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-31,669
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32209

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,030/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $143,663

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $17	+0% $-25	+5% $-66	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-77	+0% $-25	+5% $28	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $13	base $-25	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4144 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,095	$0.98	25d	1	0.13mi
4294 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	25d	1	0.19mi
2904 Lippia Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	25d	1	0.28mi
5838 Abelia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1135	$1,150	$1.01	25d	1	0.30mi
5814 Begonia Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,655	$1.10	25d	1	0.36mi
5821 Begonia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,155	$0.94	6d	1	0.39mi
6601 Cleveland Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,400	$1.56	25d	1	0.40mi
6188 Pettiford Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,850	$1.23	14d	1	0.40mi
4236 Homer Rd N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	888	$1,250	$1.41	13d	1	0.54mi
3997 Leonnie Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$950	$1.13	9d	1	0.63mi
5565 Minosa Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,400	$1.14	6d	1	0.63mi
4211 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	25d	1	0.64mi
5428 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	25d	1	0.66mi
4253 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$975	$1.16	25d	1	0.70mi
5531 Agra Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	16d	1	0.70mi
6731 W Virginia Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1188	$1,225	$1.03	23d	1	0.72mi
4177 Lorenzo Ct Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$945	$1.12	3d	1	0.74mi
5326 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.76mi
5217 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	9d	1	0.80mi
6114 Strawflower Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,200	$1.17	25d	1	0.81mi
4543 Moncrief Rd W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	9d	1	0.83mi
5227 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,450	$1.24	25d	1	0.84mi
4910 Rhode Island Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,696	$1.30	25d	1	0.85mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	19d	1	0.87mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	19d	1	0.87mi
4440 Ken Knight Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	716	$650	$0.91	16d	1	0.94mi
5355 New Kings Rd Unit 21 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	6d	1	0.95mi
2151 Wilberforce Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,249	$1.07	25d	1	0.95mi
5035 Campenella Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	25d	1	0.97mi
2268 W 44th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1077	$1,440	$1.34	6d	1	0.99mi
2092 Benedict Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	816	$1,095	$1.34	25d	1	1.05mi
2818 Palmdale St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1484	$1,900	$1.28	25d	1	1.08mi
2108 Talladega Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,579	$1.36	6d	1	1.08mi
5306 Paris Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	944	$1,150	$1.22	25d	1	1.08mi
2069 Talladega Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,298	$1.13	6d	1	1.12mi
2171 W 40th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	1.18mi
6705 Gaspar Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,254	$1.12	19d	1	1.27mi
2693 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	25d	1	1.28mi
8509 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,675	$1.12	25d	1	1.28mi
2661 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1031	$1,350	$1.31	25d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $148,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $148,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,990 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,990 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,990 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,990 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,990 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    price $150,990
13. 2026-03-22
    listed $155,990 Active
14. 2003-08-25
    soldstatus $70,000
15. 2003-04-30
    soldstatus $43,000
16. 2003-03-21
    soldstatus $38,000 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    BRICK OFF-GRADE; POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM; POSSIBLE HOOK-UP (AT BUYER'S COST) TO CITY WATER/SEWER. SELLING AS-IS; SPECIAL ADDENDUM REQ'D W/ ALL OFFERS; FULL CONTRACTS ONLY--NO VERBALS OR LOI'S; NO REPAIRS; NO FHA/VA; NO SURVEY CALL L.A. FOR FAX COPY OF ADDENDUM; CALL L.A. OR L.O. FOR LOCK-BOX COMBO TO SHOW!!

17. 2003-01-30
    listed $35,900 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    BRICK OFF-GRADE; POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM; POSSIBLE HOOK-UP (AT BUYER'S COST) TO CITY WATER/SEWER. SELLING AS-IS; SPECIAL ADDENDUM REQ'D W/ ALL OFFERS; FULL CONTRACTS ONLY--NO VERBALS OR LOI'S; NO REPAIRS; NO FHA/VA; NO SURVEY CALL L.A. FOR FAX COPY OF ADDENDUM; CALL L.A. OR L.O. FOR LOCK-BOX COMBO TO SHOW!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$2,030
• − Insurance: −$1,538
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$2,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$667
• After-tax cash flow: $373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,657
• Household income: $30,514
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.92%
• Current HPI: 189.5977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+320.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $150,990 realMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $155,990 realMLS
• 2003-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-21 Sold (MLS) $38,000 realMLS
• 2003-01-30 Listed $35,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,030 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.