4460 Harvard Dr · Hernando, FL 34442

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 939 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1956 0.46 ac lot Est $180k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEING SOLD AS WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT Looking for investment property, this is it freshly painted, with all the furniture. Less than 1 mile from Hernado beach and boat ramp. Take a look and make an offer. There is a seperate lot that could be sold for a mobile home. Owner financing . Excelent opportunity for a first time. time home buyer or property investment

Key facts

• Large shade trees
• Detached car port
• Move in condition

Tags

• MOVE IN CONDITION
• LARGE SHADE TREES
• NEW SEPTIC DRAIN FIELD
• LARGE SHED
• DETACHED CAR PORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a county road; Lot approximately 0.46 acres; Zoning: CLMH

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Driveway; Paved and unpaved parking areas; Total of 1 parking space
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Built date not specified
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Electric oven and electric range; Refrigerator; Carpet and laminate flooring; Central heating and electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $155k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,288
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2742 Bucknell Ter	0.25mi	2/1.0	928 (-1%)	5mo	$167,250	$180	82
2945 N Kent Pt	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,034 (+10%)	14mo	$198,900	$192	56
2931 N Wheaton Pt	0.64mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (+8%)	7mo	$127,000	$125	46
2151 N Meadowview Ter	0.65mi	2/1.0	992 (+6%)	18mo	$245,000	$247	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,019
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,355
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,562/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $155,000 Active
17. 2004-11-29
    soldstatus $51,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    BEING SOLD AS WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT Looking for investment property, this is it freshly painted, with all the furniture. Less than 1 mile from Hernado beach and boat ramp. Take a look and make an offer. There is a seperate lot that could be sold for a mobile home. Owner financing . Excelent opportunity for a first time. time home buyer or property investment

18. 2004-11-22
    soldstatus $50,000
19. 2004-03-08
    listed $51,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    BEING SOLD AS WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT Looking for investment property, this is it freshly painted, with all the furniture. Less than 1 mile from Hernado beach and boat ramp. Take a look and make an offer. There is a seperate lot that could be sold for a mobile home. Owner financing . Excelent opportunity for a first time. time home buyer or property investment

20. 2003-05-23
    soldstatus $32,000
21. 2003-05-06
    soldstatus $32,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    This is a nice little home set on 3 lots. Plenty of room for future possibilities. This home will be sold "As Is" with right to inspect. Attention handymen, this is the one you`ve ben looking for.

22. 2003-03-20
    listed $35,000 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    This is a nice little home set on 3 lots. Plenty of room for future possibilities. This home will be sold "As Is" with right to inspect. Attention handymen, this is the one you`ve ben looking for.

23. 1997-04-16
    soldstatus $21,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,562
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$45
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11
• After-tax cash flow: $2,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+631.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $155,000 RACC
• 2004-11-29 Sold (MLS) $51,000 RACC
• 2004-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-08 Listed $51,000 RACC
• 2003-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-06 Sold (MLS) $32,000 RACC
• 2003-03-20 Listed $35,000 RACC
• 1997-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $21,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,562 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.