Alder Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$244,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,996 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The thoughtfully designed Alder floor plan offers 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spaces that balance everyday comfort and modern style. A dramatic two-story family room creates an open, airy feel and flows seamlessly into the integrated kitchen and dining area , perfect for gathering, entertaining, or busy family life. Upstairs, a second-floor game room adds flexible living space for fun, relaxation, or work-from-home needs, while the optional covered patio extends your living area outdoors for year-round enjoyment. With an array of included features and options available, this home is precisely what you've been looking for.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 44 days

Tags

• TWO STORY FAMILY ROOM
• SECOND FLOOR GAME ROOM
• OPTIONAL COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $244,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Alder); Listing status: Active
• Construction: New construction (Plan); Living area approximately 1996
• Exterior features: Property listed as the Alder plan; New construction plan

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (specific appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1996 square feet listed elsewhere)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not provided)

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $246,731.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-467/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,907 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,731
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -0.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9719 Caney Bend Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+1%)	1mo	$279,900	$139	68
14435 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+1%)	2mo	$253,900	$126	66
14419 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+1%)	3mo	$259,900	$129	66
9151 White Tail Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,884 (-6%)	6mo	$545,000	$289	63
14223 Spring Valley Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+0%)	6mo	$264,900	$132	62
9708 Sunny Valley Rd	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,109 (+6%)	3mo	$263,000	$125	55
14427 Elmfield Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-3%)	1mo	$249,900	$129	54
14418 High Hill Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,109 (+6%)	8mo	$263,000	$125	50
14208 Cypress Laurel Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (-6%)	6mo	$265,000	$142	50
14423 Elmfield Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (-6%)	2mo	$242,900	$130	48
9320 Shady Creek Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-11%)	7mo	$249,900	$140	46
9203 White Tail Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,287 (+15%)	3mo	$469,000	$205	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,610
• Equity at exit: $36,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-69,280
• Equity at exit: $21,333

Cash invested: $69,085 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$308 /mo · $3,701/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $241,097

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $46	+0% $-39	+5% $-124	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-122	+0% $-39	+5% $44	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $24	base $-39	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,683
• Closing costs: $7,402
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9302 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$1,775	$1.09	45d	1	0.11mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,135	$1.33	0d	14	0.12mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,984	$1.11	0d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,990 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,990 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,990 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,990 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $244,990 Active 633-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,821
• − Property taxes: −$3,701
• − Insurance: −$1,234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$7,178
• Taxable loss: −$4,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Alder plan by CastleRock Communities is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. Enhancements like painting and landscaping can further boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace landscaping with more drought-resistant plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal
• Both Install smart home technology — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with more drought-resistant plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B