198 Grape St · Buffalo, NY 14204

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1890 2,500 sqft lot $81/sqft · 20% below area Est $126k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Currently, this single-family home is tenant-occupied; it can be delivered vacant at closing. Features 4 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, a living room, a formal dining room, and a kitchen. Conveniently located in Buffalo’s historic Fruit Belt neighborhood, this property is just a minutes from the Medical Campus, hospitals, and downtown, with easy access to major routes and public transportation. Square footage differs from tax records; floor plan available.

Key facts

• 2,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 69 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $99,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$125,580) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $970 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,970/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 945% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.60%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,580
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -20.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Locust St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,217 (-2%)	12mo	$95,000	$78	70
513 High St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,270 (+3%)	7mo	$95,000	$75	70
598 High St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,139 (-8%)	7mo	$115,000	$101	54
232 Mulberry St	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,343 (+9%)	19mo	$200,000	$149	52
635 Jefferson Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,330 (+8%)	1mo	$220,000	$165	50
164 Locust St	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,320 (+7%)	21mo	$238,000	$180	49
205 Mulberry St	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,056 (-15%)	21mo	$115,000	$109	43
70 Camp St	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (+7%)	21mo	$245,000	$185	42
1319 Michigan Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,301 (+5%)	22mo	$155,000	$119	36
1274 Michigan Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (-7%)	23mo	$213,000	$185	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $50,579
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $145,184
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14204

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,970 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $252/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	2d	58	0.37mi
1145 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	655	$2,049	$3.13	43d	1	0.40mi
1155 Main St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	592	$2,300	$3.88	43d	1	0.66mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	14d	1	0.69mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	10d	7	0.71mi
946 Main St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	43d	1	0.73mi
40 North St Unit 306 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,950	$1.73	43d	1	0.75mi
40 North St Unit 203 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.5	920	$1,675	$1.82	43d	1	0.75mi
40 North St Unit 102 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.5	702	$1,350	$1.92	2d	1	0.75mi
40 North St Unit 205A Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.5	884	$1,950	$2.21	43d	1	0.75mi
40 North St Unit 204 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.5	936	$1,650	$1.76	43d	1	0.75mi
40 North St Unit 201 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	884	$1,600	$1.81	2d	1	0.75mi
130 Linwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	23d	1	0.80mi
628 Ellicott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,812	$2.65	2d	5	0.80mi
499 Franklin St Apt 4 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.5	817	$1,995	$2.44	43d	1	0.82mi
499 Franklin St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.5	1067	$2,930	$2.75	43d	1	0.82mi
17 N Pearl St Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1077	$2,700	$2.51	23d	1	0.83mi
17 N Pearl St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,100	$2.59	23d	1	0.83mi
44 N Pearl St #5 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	43d	1	0.83mi
50 E Utica St Unit 2C Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	43d	1	0.83mi
50 E Utica St Unit 3D Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	43d	1	0.83mi
19 E Utica St Unit 203 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	14d	1	0.84mi
451 Franklin St #2 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	43d	1	0.86mi
547 E Utica St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	759	$900	$1.19	43d	1	0.87mi
519 Virginia St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	3d	3	0.88mi
567 Delaware Ave Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	780	$1,570	$2.01	43d	1	0.89mi
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	0.95mi
362 Oak St Unit 308 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	43d	1	0.95mi
493 Delaware Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	1010	$1,400	$1.39	43d	1	0.95mi
489 Ellicott St Unit 36 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.95mi
888 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,440	$2.71	23d	1	0.96mi
479 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	3d	1	0.96mi
916 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,625	$2.17	3d	9	0.97mi
506 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1190	$2,995	$2.52	10d	6	0.97mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	3d	1	0.97mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	14d	1	0.97mi
12 Park St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	1.05mi
490 Pearl St Unit 4 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	860	$1,550	$1.80	19d	1	1.06mi
213 Summer St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1020	$2,450	$2.40	21d	1	1.07mi
1040 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,500	$2.18	3d	4	1.08mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $99,900 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Currently, this single-family home is tenant-occupied; it can be delivered vacant at closing. Features 4 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, a living room, a formal dining room, and a kitchen. Conveniently located in Buffalo’s historic Fruit Belt neighborhood, this property is just a minutes from the Medical Campus, hospitals, and downtown, with easy access to major routes and public transportation. Square footage differs from tax records; floor plan available.

16. 2025-10-16
    historical
17. 2025-10-03
    price $115,000
18. 2025-08-22
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2024-12-28
    historical $1,400
20. 2024-12-26
    listed $1,400
21. 2023-12-15
    historical $1,400
22. 2023-11-21
    listed $1,400
23. 2023-11-21
    historical $1,400
24. 2023-11-20
    listed $1,400
25. 2023-09-26
    historical
26. 2023-08-03
    status Active
27. 2023-07-31
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
28. 2023-07-19
    listed $99,900 Active
29. 2023-06-03
    historical
30. 2022-05-04
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed Sale or Rented
31. 2022-05-04
    soldstatus $80,000
32. 2022-03-25
    status Pending Sale
33. 2022-02-07
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
34. 2022-02-03
    listed $84,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $252 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$718/yr (+$60/mo · 284.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$252
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $10,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,545
• After-tax cash flow: $9,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,932
• Household income: $28,182
• Rent vs Own: 73.5% rent · 26.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 945.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Current HPI: 312.6232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+18.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-28 Rental Removed $1,400 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-12-26 Listed for Rent $1,400 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-12-15 Rental Removed $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-21 Listed for Rent $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-21 Rental Removed $1,400 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-11-20 Listed for Rent $1,400 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-09-26 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-08-03 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2023-07-31 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2023-07-19 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-06-03 Rental Removed — TURBOTENANT
• 2022-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-04 Sold (MLS) $80,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-03-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-02-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-02-03 Listed $84,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $252 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.