204 S Mill St · Winnsboro, TX 75494

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3BR-2BA Cottage style siding home with 2 Car detached Garage and 2 Living Areas. The home features Hardwood Floors and Spacious Rooms. Galley kitchen provides good cabinet space, and the den has Beautiful real Wood Walls. There is a nice Large Utility Room and Covered front & back Porches for lazy days & hot coffee mornings, topped off with a White Picket Fence! A Place to Call HOME!

Key facts

• Covered porches
• Exposed shiplap
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• COVERED PORCHES
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• EXPOSED SHIPLAP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winnsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.31%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 S Mill St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,450 (-6%)	2mo	$125,000	$86	76
207 E Cedar St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+3%)	15mo	$169,900	$107	73
203 E Cedar St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+3%)	15mo	$189,500	$119	70
408 N Post Oak	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	11mo	$168,000	$111	69
504 N Main St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+11%)	2mo	$245,888	$144	65
409 W Myrtle St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+11%)	14mo	$269,500	$158	62
308 Jeannine St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+5%)	6mo	$236,900	$147	54
506 Winn Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-8%)	2mo	$199,500	$140	54
400 Blackjack St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-8%)	24mo	$219,000	$155	51
500 Helena St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+9%)	22mo	$185,000	$110	44
507 Linda Kay Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-9%)	21mo	$185,000	$132	42
911 N Walnut St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,760 (+14%)	12mo	$138,000	$78	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $55,217
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $135,252
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75494

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,428/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $1,055

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,299	-5% $1,077	+0% $1,055	+5% $1,034	+10% $1,013
Rent	-10% $879	-5% $967	+0% $1,055	+5% $1,144	+10% $1,232
Rate	-1.0pp $1,093	-0.5pp $1,074	base $1,055	+0.5pp $1,036	+1.0pp $1,016

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 S Mill St Winnsboro, TX	4.0	2.0	1954	$2,235	$1.14	45d	1	0.06mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $75,000 Active
2. 2026-04-22
   soldstatus
3. 2026-04-22
   soldstatus
4. 2014-10-10
   soldstatus
5. 2014-10-09
   soldstatus 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Nice 3BR-2BA Cottage style siding home with 2 Car detached Garage and 2 Living Areas. The home features Hardwood Floors and Spacious Rooms. Galley kitchen provides good cabinet space, and the den has Beautiful real Wood Walls. There is a nice Large Utility Room and Covered front & back Porches for lazy days & hot coffee mornings, topped off with a White Picket Fence! A Place to Call HOME!

6. 2014-09-03
   listed $69,900 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Nice 3BR-2BA Cottage style siding home with 2 Car detached Garage and 2 Living Areas. The home features Hardwood Floors and Spacious Rooms. Galley kitchen provides good cabinet space, and the den has Beautiful real Wood Walls. There is a nice Large Utility Room and Covered front & back Porches for lazy days & hot coffee mornings, topped off with a White Picket Fence! A Place to Call HOME!

7. 2004-04-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,428 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,428 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$3,428
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,962
• After-tax cash flow: $9,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846200
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,192
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4769
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnsboro, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,685

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.64%
• Current HPI: 234.6203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-09 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2014-09-03 Listed $69,900 GTAR
• 2004-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,428 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.