86 Duncan Ave · Crafton, PA 15205

$225,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,514 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1920 4,356 sqft lot Est $242k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 86 Duncan Avenue in Crafton, a lovingly maintained home that is truly move-in ready. The first floor features a spacious living room and dining room with hardwood floors. The dining area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating an open and functional space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Just off the dining room, you’ll find a cozy family room highlighted by a beautiful bay window with a built-in window bench, offering the perfect spot to relax with a book or enjoy natural light throughout the day. Upstairs, the home offers three bedrooms, a lovely full bath, plus a bonus room that is ideal for a home office, nursery, or can easily be converted into a walk-in closet. The unfinished basement provides ample storage and includes a classic Pittsburgh potty. Enjoy outdoor living with a large front porch, perfect for a porch swing, and a level backyard with a detached garage located at the rear of the property. This home is within walking distance to shopping, super convenient location!

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Bonus room
• Bay window

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BAY WINDOW
• BUILT-IN WINDOW BENCH
• BONUS ROOM
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• CLASSIC PITTSBURGH POTTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; On-street parking; Garage parking available (1 space total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story brick house; Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Public transportation access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Stove; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Upper-level bedroom (11 x 12); Upper-level bedroom (10 x 12); Upper-level bedroom (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring; Walk-up basement access
• Laundry & utility: Basement laundry (11 x 16); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#160 in PA, #1,322 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute F.
• Carlynton SD (suburban): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #352 of 539 in PA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crafton El Sch (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 288 students, 100% FRL); Carlynton Jshs (math 23% / reading 42%, grade F, #330 of 437 statewide, top 76%, 595 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 42% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $225k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $221,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Sampson Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,472 (-3%)	2mo	$173,405	$118	75
88 Evans Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,523 (+1%)	2mo	$225,000	$148	74
16 Admiral Dewey Ave	0.38mi	4/1.5	1,564 (+3%)	4mo	$250,000	$160	73
31 Nicholson St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+2%)	11mo	$390,000	$252	69
92 N Duane Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,678 (+11%)	7mo	$325,000	$194	58
83 Evans Ave	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,442 (-5%)	11mo	$136,833	$95	57
2671 Center St	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,497 (-1%)	7mo	$295,000	$197	55
76 Warren St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,664 (+10%)	2mo	$235,000	$141	54
2902 Center St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (-13%)	0mo	$225,000	$170	45
227 Scotia St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,392 (-8%)	6mo	$101,000	$73	42
25 S Linwood Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+14%)	3mo	$317,500	$185	42
11 N Grandview Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-14%)	11mo	$176,000	$135	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-19,657
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,401
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15205

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,965/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $312	+0% $248	+5% $184	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $155	+0% $248	+5% $341	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $305	base $248	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Taylor St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,600	$1.37	46d	1	0.49mi
29 E Prospect Ave Unit 2 Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	45d	1	0.63mi
1819 Chessland St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	3.5	2185	$3,495	$1.60	3d	1	1.30mi
1835 Chessland St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	3.5	2185	$3,495	$1.60	3d	1	1.31mi
1841 Chessland St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	3.5	2185	$3,495	$1.60	3d	1	1.31mi
1831 Chessland St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	3.5	2185	$3,495	$1.60	3d	1	1.31mi
1837 Chessland St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	3.5	2185	$3,495	$1.60	3d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $225,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,965 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,965 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,965
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$608
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$146
• After-tax cash flow: $3,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlynton SD
• NCES district ID: 4205040
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,249
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #5192
• State rank: #352 of 539 in PA

Livability — Crafton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #1322

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crafton, PA
• County: Allegheny County · 1,022,028 people
• City population: 24,060
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,060
• Household income: $70,991
• Rent vs Own: 45.5% rent · 54.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1334.0

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 12% Two or more races 5% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.16%
• Current HPI: 246.4018
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+114.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $225,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-02 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $225,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $230,000 West Penn MLS
• 2017-09-14 Sold (MLS) $140,265 West Penn MLS
• 2017-07-29 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2017-07-27 Listed $139,000 West Penn MLS
• 2011-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-26 Price Changed $115,000 West Penn MLS
• 2011-05-26 Sold (MLS) $110,000 West Penn MLS
• 2011-04-13 Listed $110,000 West Penn MLS
• 2009-04-06 Sold (MLS) $57,900 West Penn MLS
• 2008-11-17 Listed $57,900 West Penn MLS
• 2004-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2004-07-30 Sold (MLS) $82,500 West Penn MLS
• 2004-05-05 Listed $90,000 West Penn MLS
• 1999-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-24 Sold (MLS) $97,000 West Penn MLS
• 1999-05-03 Listed $104,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,965 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.