16637 Witt Rd · Dexter, NY 13615

$69,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 43,560 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Poor condition 2.58 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This property is nestled in gorgeous woods; it consists of a brick floored screened gazebo where you can hang your hammock and nap, a three stall garage, a spacious old sugaring shack and a trailer with a porch and added shelter/roof. Located in a rural area, wildlife here is abundant and the peaceful setting is very inviting. Situated next to a TILT preserve, the site inspires an appreciation for the sound of tree frogs, crickets, foxes, deer and birds, including whip-poor-wills! This is a very special place if you treasure wildlife and a rural peaceful setting.

Key facts

• Wildlife abundant
• Three stall garage
• Rural area

Tags

• BRICK FLOORED SCREENED GAZEBO
• THREE STALL GARAGE
• OLD SUGARING SHACK
• ADDED SHELTER ROOF
• RURAL AREA
• WILDLIFE ABUNDANT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Trails/paths nearby

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (3 spaces)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Irregular, rural, wooded lot (213 x 428)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main level primary bedroom; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($983 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#869 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• General Brown Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #407 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dexter Elementary School (316 students, 40% FRL); General Brown Junior-Senior High School (math 50% / reading 52%, grade D+, #970 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 661 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $647 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.99%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $19,758
• Equity at exit: $23,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $54,145
• Equity at exit: $31,147

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13615

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $318	+0% $293	+5% $269	+10% $245
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $255	+0% $293	+5% $332	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $311	base $293	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $69,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $79,900 Active 570-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$944
• − Management: −$944
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,561
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$615
• After-tax cash flow: $2,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior painting, and landscaping. Significant improvements are needed to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant rust and wear
• Major exterior walls — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint would enhance curb appeal and home value
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping would improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant rust and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior walls · Weathered and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint would enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping would improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: General Brown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $57,237
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3398
• State rank: #407 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dexter

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #869
• US rank: #16748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 538

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Scandinavian 6% Iranian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Current HPI: 342.5299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $69,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $79,900 CNYIS