303 E 5th St · Justin, TX 76247

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 292 Days on market

Built 1973 6,011 sqft lot $132/sqft · 39% below area Est $369k · 39% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique opportunity in downtown Justin! This property is being sold for lot value but also includes a residential home on-site. Featuring prime frontage along FM 407, the location offers excellent visibility and accessibility. Surrounding lots are also available, creating potential for larger combined development or investment opportunities. Whether you’re seeking a future building site, investment property, or redevelopment opportunity, this location is full of possibilities.

Key facts

• Excellent visibility
• Accessibility
• Residential home

Tags

• RESIDENTIAL HOME
• PRIME FRONTAGE
• EXCELLENT VISIBILITY
• ACCESSIBILITY
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
• FUTURE BUILDING SITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Justin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#443 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1503 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,062
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -39.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 N Blue Bonnet Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,709 (+0%)	8mo	$339,000	$198	86
316 W 6th St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,715 (+1%)	8mo	$419,914	$245	72
208 W 4th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-6%)	7mo	$315,000	$196	68
12909 Azure Heights Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-14%)	2mo	$275,499	$187	59
12439 Lost Rock Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-14%)	7mo	$253,574	$172	55
11571 Antrim Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-14%)	8mo	$254,349	$173	54
11542 Antrim Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-14%)	8mo	$269,199	$183	54
632 Peshtigo Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+1%)	8mo	$319,999	$185	53
609 Autumn Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-4%)	7mo	$330,000	$202	53
523 W 1st St	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,630 (-4%)	1mo	$375,000	$230	51
416 W 3rd St	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,940 (+14%)	6mo	$239,900	$124	46
122 N College Ave	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,826 (+7%)	8mo	$325,000	$178	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,658
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,215
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1503
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,476/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $416	-5% $352	+0% $289	+5% $225	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $200	+0% $289	+5% $377	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $346	base $289	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Barrett Dr Unit 3 Justin, TX	2.0	1.0	1124	$1,300	$1.16	25d	1	0.47mi
602 W 3rd St Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.65mi
620 W 1st St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$2,500	$1.20	11d	1	0.73mi
210 Spruce Valley Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2238	$2,800	$1.25	18d	1	0.87mi
810 Tally Blvd Justin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1212	$2,465	$2.03	0d	30	1.20mi
439 Ridge Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,450	$1.23	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 292 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 289 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 287 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 283 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 281 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 276 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 275 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $225,000 Active 274 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    status Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Unique opportunity in downtown Justin! This property is being sold for lot value but also includes a residential home on-site. Featuring prime frontage along FM 407, the location offers excellent visibility and accessibility. Surrounding lots are also available, creating potential for larger combined development or investment opportunities. Whether you’re seeking a future building site, investment property, or redevelopment opportunity, this location is full of possibilities.

15. 2026-03-31
    historical 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Unique opportunity in downtown Justin! This property is being sold for lot value but also includes a residential home on-site. Featuring prime frontage along FM 407, the location offers excellent visibility and accessibility. Surrounding lots are also available, creating potential for larger combined development or investment opportunities. Whether you’re seeking a future building site, investment property, or redevelopment opportunity, this location is full of possibilities.

16. 2026-03-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Unique opportunity in downtown Justin! This property is being sold for lot value but also includes a residential home on-site. Featuring prime frontage along FM 407, the location offers excellent visibility and accessibility. Surrounding lots are also available, creating potential for larger combined development or investment opportunities. Whether you’re seeking a future building site, investment property, or redevelopment opportunity, this location is full of possibilities.

17. 2026-02-21
    price $279,000

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Unique opportunity in downtown Justin! This property is being sold for lot value but also includes a residential home on-site. Featuring prime frontage along FM 407, the location offers excellent visibility and accessibility. Surrounding lots are also available, creating potential for larger combined development or investment opportunities. Whether you’re seeking a future building site, investment property, or redevelopment opportunity, this location is full of possibilities.

18. 2026-02-21
    price $279,000 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Unique opportunity in downtown Justin! This property is being sold for lot value but also includes a residential home on-site. Featuring prime frontage along FM 407, the location offers excellent visibility and accessibility. Surrounding lots are also available, creating potential for larger combined development or investment opportunities. Whether you’re seeking a future building site, investment property, or redevelopment opportunity, this location is full of possibilities.

19. 2025-08-28
    listed $299,000 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Unique opportunity in downtown Justin! This property is being sold for lot value but also includes a residential home on-site. Featuring prime frontage along FM 407, the location offers excellent visibility and accessibility. Surrounding lots are also available, creating potential for larger combined development or investment opportunities. Whether you’re seeking a future building site, investment property, or redevelopment opportunity, this location is full of possibilities.

20. 2025-08-28
    listed $299,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Unique opportunity in downtown Justin! This property is being sold for lot value but also includes a residential home on-site. Featuring prime frontage along FM 407, the location offers excellent visibility and accessibility. Surrounding lots are also available, creating potential for larger combined development or investment opportunities. Whether you’re seeking a future building site, investment property, or redevelopment opportunity, this location is full of possibilities.

21. 2025-04-18
    listed $299,990 Active
22. 1991-11-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,476 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,641/yr (+$137/mo · 66.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,476
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,149
• − Management: −$2,149
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $3,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Justin

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #9059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Justin, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 21,726
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $279,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $279,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-18 Listed $299,990 NTREIS
• 1991-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,476 · -20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.