611 Fletcher Pl · Lonoke, AR 72086

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1988 0.25 ac lot $37/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One story home on a flat level lot in the heart of Lonoke. Private setting. Home to be sold as is.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 5.7% in Lonoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#195 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lonoke School District (town): math 30% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #146 of 238 in AR (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.76%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,028
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -53.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
703 W 4th St	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,312 (+8%)	0mo	$69,900	$30	73
718 N Barnes St	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,300 (+7%)	1mo	$155,000	$67	58
819 W Front St	0.43mi	3/1.0	2,400 (+12%)	6mo	$179,000	$75	55
416 England St	0.21mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,875 (-12%)	18mo	$190,000	$101	49
215 E 8th St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,847 (-14%)	14mo	$208,500	$113	38
221 Barker St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (-7%)	21mo	$182,500	$92	37
203 E Ash St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,843 (-14%)	13mo	$205,000	$111	37
520 E 8 St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,827 (-15%)	11mo	$236,000	$129	32
203 Frank T Bunton	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,960 (-9%)	23mo	$62,500	$32	31
611 College St	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,889 (-12%)	18mo	$50,500	$27	25
304 Conway St	0.71mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-10%)	16mo	$147,000	$77	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $23,560
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $67,480
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72086

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $624

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Rosemary Ln Lonoke, AR	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,350	$0.76	43d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $84,900 New Listing 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    One story home on a flat level lot in the heart of Lonoke. Private setting. Home to be sold as is.

18. 2011-02-04
    soldstatus $133,000
19. 2011-01-28
    soldstatus $133,000 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Wonderfully updated home with large rooms & designer decor. You've got to see this home! New flooring throughout, new cabinets, countertops, stove, paint, bathroom vanity & commode. New Additions: Master closet, bath, bedroom with office, & sunroom. New roof, screens, exterior paint, landscaping, privacy fence. Separate fenced area for dogs & dog house. Located on a quiet street. Make your appt. today! Sq. Ft. approx. measuring encouraged. See Agent Remarks!

20. 2011-01-01
    historical 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Wonderfully updated home with large rooms & designer decor. You've got to see this home! New flooring throughout, new cabinets, countertops, stove, paint, bathroom vanity & commode. New Additions: Master closet, bath, bedroom with office, & sunroom. New roof, screens, exterior paint, landscaping, privacy fence. Separate fenced area for dogs & dog house. Located on a quiet street. Make your appt. today! Sq. Ft. approx. measuring encouraged. See Agent Remarks!

21. 2010-11-29
    listed $139,500 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Wonderfully updated home with large rooms & designer decor. You've got to see this home! New flooring throughout, new cabinets, countertops, stove, paint, bathroom vanity & commode. New Additions: Master closet, bath, bedroom with office, & sunroom. New roof, screens, exterior paint, landscaping, privacy fence. Separate fenced area for dogs & dog house. Located on a quiet street. Make your appt. today! Sq. Ft. approx. measuring encouraged. See Agent Remarks!

22. 2002-05-03
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $511 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,919
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $5,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lonoke School District
• NCES district ID: 0509060
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 26.28/100
• National rank: #7247
• State rank: #146 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lonoke

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #15446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lonoke, AR
• Population (ZIP): 12,250

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.46%
• Current HPI: 197.6009
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+54.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $84,900 CARMLS
• 2011-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-28 Sold (MLS) $133,000 CARMLS
• 2011-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2010-11-29 Listed $139,500 CARMLS
• 2002-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · -17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.