57 Clemons Rd #64 · Central Park, WA 98563

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1980 $95/sqft · at area comps Est $160k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious double-wide in Country Estates 55+ park, located in Montesano. This 3 bed, 2 bath home offers a primary ensuite, vinyl windows, and generous living/dining areas. Kitchen with double oven, family room, and utility room add convenience. Enjoy full baths, carport with storage shed, and multiple decks including a covered front entry. End-of-road location with greenbelt views provides privacy and a serene setting.

Key facts

• Multiple decks
• Vinyl windows
• Utility room

Tags

• PRIMARY ENSUITE
• VINYL WINDOWS
• UTILITY ROOM
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• MULTIPLE DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-228/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#174 in WA, #4,470 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Montesano School District (town): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #60 of 291 in WA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beacon Avenue Elementary School (350 students, 42% FRL); Simpson Avenue Elementary (386 students, 43% FRL); Montesano Jr-Sr High (694 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,471 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,901
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 0.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Clemons Rd #71	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+10%)	1mo	$65,000	$35	82
57 Clemons Rd #41	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	8mo	$215,000	$142	76
57 Clemons Rd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	2mo	$215,000	$149	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-27,151
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-25,259
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98563

• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $156,647

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $26	+0% $-19	+5% $-64	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-71	+0% $-19	+5% $33	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $22	base $-19	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 205 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 204 DOM
14. 2026-01-07
    price $175,000
15. 2025-11-07
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 68.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montesano School District
• NCES district ID: 5305160
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,981
• Composite: 53.15/100
• National rank: #3220
• State rank: #60 of 291 in WA

Livability — Central Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #4470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,630

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.34%
• Current HPI: 213.2127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $185,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $930 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.