21216 BLUE CURL Way #212 · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 100 Days on market

Built 1977 Fair condition Est $200k · at est. ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION!!!! This is quite possibly one of the best locations in the 55+ Greenbrier community. Sitting on one of the largest lots and situated at an angle this home has both a highly rare and even more coveted front and back yard! Seconds away from the recently renovated pool and clubhouse + plenty of guest parking! There is truly nothing to yearn for and everything to love with this location. Enjoy a morning cup of coffee on your expansive porch and admire your beautiful front yard. The interior provides two dedicated living spaces along with an open concept kitchen. Luxury Vinyl flooring was installed throughout the home in 2019. With two bedrooms and two bathrooms its the perfect fit for someone looking to downsize and live a more relaxed lifestyle. The spacious primary bedroom has two closets and attached bath with already previously installed grab bars. Homes like this don't come up everyday! Call us to schedule your appointment before its too late.

Key facts

• Shade trees
• Backyard
• New oven

Tags

• FRONT YARD
• BACKYARD
• EXPANDED PORCH
• SHADE TREES
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEW OVEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Greenbrier; Manager approval required; Rent includes pool access
• Financial info: Land lease present (park-managed, monthly fee applies)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Onsite property management; Clubhouse; Community pool; Picnic area; Fitness/exercise room; Recreational/multipurpose room; Maintenance of grounds; Pets permitted (contact manager); Street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 2 covered spaces; Has parking
• Security: Automatic gate; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (remains on site); Double body type; Single-story; Front entry-facing
• Construction: Metal roof; Assessor-sourced year built; Mobile home dimensions approximately 24' x 56'; One-story construction
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Association pool; Front and back yard with lawn; Sprinkler system with timer; Close to clubhouse; One storage shed on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Built-in range; Gas oven; Garbage disposal; Dishwasher; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main floor); All bedrooms located on the ground level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring throughout
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Walk-in shower and standard shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in shelving and storage; Open floor plan; Front entry; Single-story home; Automatic gate; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $963 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.65%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,256
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21312 Seep Willow Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	0mo	$195,000	$135	82
21315 Jimpson Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	0mo	$207,000	$144	79
26515 Cockleburr Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	15mo	$210,000	$156	76
21204 Seepwillow Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	17mo	$200,000	$139	70
21214 Willow Weed Way #165	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	19mo	$214,999	$149	70
21212 Seep Willow Way #272	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	7mo	$275,000	$179	66
21306 Jimpson Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	21mo	$185,000	$128	65
21424 Bramble	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$265,000	$184	62
21434 Tumbleweed Way	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$315,000	$219	62
21432 Tumbleweed Way	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$230,000	$160	61
21214 Seep Willow Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	19mo	$145,000	$94	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $25,156
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $85,747
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,968 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $963

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,101	-5% $1,032	+0% $963	+5% $894	+10% $825
Rent	-10% $729	-5% $846	+0% $963	+5% $1,080	+10% $1,197
Rate	-1.0pp $1,064	-0.5pp $1,014	base $963	+0.5pp $911	+1.0pp $859

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26741 Isabella Pkwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,989	$3.52	0d	5	0.74mi
26842 Claudette St #204 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	964	$2,650	$2.75	0d	1	0.82mi
20345 Rue Crevier Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,700	$2.98	0d	1	0.88mi
26955 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1007	$2,850	$2.83	0d	1	0.90mi
26941 Rainbow Glen Dr #751 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,900	$3.20	0d	1	0.90mi
26921 Flo Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,950	$2.66	0d	1	0.98mi
26901 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1001	$2,950	$2.95	0d	1	0.98mi
26956 Flo Ln #338 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,875	$2.70	0d	1	1.07mi
26844 Albion Way Unit 1 Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1817	$3,995	$2.20	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $199,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $209,900
17. 2026-04-03
    price $220,000
18. 2026-03-13
    listed $230,000 Active
19. 2023-09-08
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed Sale 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION!!!! This is quite possibly one of the best locations in the 55+ Greenbrier community. Sitting on one of the largest lots and situated at an angle this home has both a highly rare and even more coveted front and back yard! Seconds away from the recently renovated pool and clubhouse + plenty of guest parking! There is truly nothing to yearn for and everything to love with this location. Enjoy a morning cup of coffee on your expansive porch and admire your beautiful front yard. The interior provides two dedicated living spaces along with an open concept kitchen. Luxury Vinyl flooring was installed throughout the home in 2019. With two bedrooms and two bathrooms its the perfect fit for someone looking to downsize and live a more relaxed lifestyle. The spacious primary bedroom has two closets and attached bath with already previously installed grab bars. Homes like this don't come up everyday! Call us to schedule your appointment before its too late.

20. 2023-08-23
    status Pending Sale 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION!!!! This is quite possibly one of the best locations in the 55+ Greenbrier community. Sitting on one of the largest lots and situated at an angle this home has both a highly rare and even more coveted front and back yard! Seconds away from the recently renovated pool and clubhouse + plenty of guest parking! There is truly nothing to yearn for and everything to love with this location. Enjoy a morning cup of coffee on your expansive porch and admire your beautiful front yard. The interior provides two dedicated living spaces along with an open concept kitchen. Luxury Vinyl flooring was installed throughout the home in 2019. With two bedrooms and two bathrooms its the perfect fit for someone looking to downsize and live a more relaxed lifestyle. The spacious primary bedroom has two closets and attached bath with already previously installed grab bars. Homes like this don't come up everyday! Call us to schedule your appointment before its too late.

21. 2023-08-02
    listed $244,900 Active 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION!!!! This is quite possibly one of the best locations in the 55+ Greenbrier community. Sitting on one of the largest lots and situated at an angle this home has both a highly rare and even more coveted front and back yard! Seconds away from the recently renovated pool and clubhouse + plenty of guest parking! There is truly nothing to yearn for and everything to love with this location. Enjoy a morning cup of coffee on your expansive porch and admire your beautiful front yard. The interior provides two dedicated living spaces along with an open concept kitchen. Luxury Vinyl flooring was installed throughout the home in 2019. With two bedrooms and two bathrooms its the perfect fit for someone looking to downsize and live a more relaxed lifestyle. The spacious primary bedroom has two closets and attached bath with already previously installed grab bars. Homes like this don't come up everyday! Call us to schedule your appointment before its too late.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,849
• − Management: −$2,849
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $8,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,137
• After-tax cash flow: $9,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home has fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting the exterior and repairing the roof would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor roof — gray shingles
• Minor exterior siding — white siding
• Minor interior walls — ceiling tiles

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both repair roof — improves structural integrity and resale value
• Both replace ceiling tiles — updates interior and enhances resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · gray shingles	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · white siding	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · ceiling tiles	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both repair roof — improves structural integrity and resale value ↑
• Both replace ceiling tiles — updates interior and enhances resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $230,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-08 Sold (MLS) $230,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-08-02 Listed $244,900 CRMLS