106 Sugar Pine Dr · Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18337

$39,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1982 Fair condition Est $42k · 6% under $233/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CHOICE LAKE VIEW PARK MODEL WITH A VERY LARGE DECK OVERLOOKING THE LAKE. THE PARK MODEL HAS A MAINTENANCE FREE RUBBER ROOF AND AC. THE FLOORING WAS UPGRADED. THE UNIT IS LOCATED IN A VERY QUIET IDEA AREA. THE OWNERS ARE SELLING DUE TO AGE HAVING SPENT 22 YEARS IN THIS LOCATION. THE ADJOINING CAMPSITE IS ALSO FOR SALE BY THE SAME OWNER. SERENITY AWAITS. YOU.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Upgraded flooring
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• LARGE DECK
• MAINTENANCE FREE RUBBER ROOF
• UPGRADED FLOORING
• QUIET AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From the front gate turn right on Forest Glen Dr, proceed to Village Dr East. Take Village Dr East to Sugar Pine Dr and turn left. The property is the fourth property on the left.
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Annual association fee of $2,800 (about $233.33/month)

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property; Vacation RV/Trailer subtype
• Construction: 400 square feet of above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Located in the Lake Adventure subdivision; Commercial zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms; 1 full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 24.5% vs local median 5.3% in Conashaugh Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.04%
• DSCR: 3.89
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Glenwood Landing Lndg	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	407 (+2%)	3mo	$36,457	$90	80
102 Lake Dr N #1772	0.07mi	2/1.0 (+1)	385 (-4%)	8mo	$91,500	$238	79
131 Bobcat Dr	0.41mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	4mo	$84,000	$211	77
154 Village Dr W	0.36mi	2/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	10mo	$40,000	$100	70
104 Glenwood Lndg	0.20mi	1/1.0	340 (-15%)	0mo	$11,000	$32	65
120 Crescent Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	392 (-2%)	8mo	$37,000	$94	60
126 Deer Run	0.61mi	2/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	10mo	$109,000	$273	58
121 Birchy Brook Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	340 (-15%)	3mo	$36,000	$106	58
216 Village Dr W	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	345 (-14%)	6mo	$62,000	$180	56
109 Bobcat Dr	0.39mi	1/1.0	450 (+12%)	11mo	$38,500	$86	52
224 Locust Lake Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (+1)	360 (-10%)	2mo	$40,000	$111	46
140 Blue Aspen Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (+1)	350 (-12%)	9mo	$24,000	$69	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $32,265
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.02×
• Total profit: $78,424
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18337

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,410 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $644

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $233 · $2,796/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 359-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $39,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,354
• − Management: −$1,354
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,228
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,735
• After-tax cash flow: $5,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed. Upgrades to the interior and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom sink — standard sink
• Minor interior walls — wallpaper
• Minor landscaping — bare gravel yard

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances appearance
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom sink · standard sink	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · wallpaper	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · bare gravel yard	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances appearance ↑
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conashaugh Lakes

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #7924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pike County · 15,799 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,799
• Household income: $93,149
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.81%
• Current HPI: 194.0604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $39,900 PWMLS