649 N Harrisburg Ave · Atlantic City, NJ 08401

$210,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity to own in sought-after Chelsea Heights! This single-family home is full of potential and ready to be transformed into the ultimate family retreat or smart investment. Ideally located near Bader Field—poised for a highly anticipated billion-dollar redevelopment—this area is on the verge of major growth. With exciting changes on the horizon and values expected to rise, now is the time to get in early. Whether you’re looking to customize your dream home or secure a property in an up-and-coming location, this is a chance you don’t want to miss. Opportunities like this don’t last—buy now before prices take off.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1940
• Listed 58 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (36.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Atlantic City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#525 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Atlantic City School District (urban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #454 of 472 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 482 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,803/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 3414% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $210k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,577 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-56,619
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-63,408
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08401

• Home prices YoY: -7.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 482
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,900/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,351

Max offer price $133,577

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 S Windsor Ave Unit b1 Atlantic City, NJ	2.0	1.0	640	$1,650	$2.58	13d	1	0.65mi
3813 Atlantic Ave Unit 1309001P Atlantic City, NJ	1.0	2.0	592	$4,333	$7.32	13d	1	0.68mi
3851 Boardwalk Atlantic City, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$19,700	$25.10	21d	5	0.77mi
101 S Raleigh Ave Atlantic City, NJ	2.0	1.0	735	$10,125	$13.78	13d	7	0.80mi
2834 Atlantic Ave Atlantic City, NJ	1.0	1.0	639	$1,675	$2.62	21d	3	0.87mi
1914 N Missouri Ave Atlantic City, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	21d	1	1.10mi
101 S Victoria Ave Unit B1 Ventnor City, NJ	1.0	1.0	550	$2,100	$3.82	13d	1	1.23mi
206 N Dorset Ave Unit 1309019P Ventnor City, NJ	1.0	1.0	645	$3,457	$5.36	13d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $210,000 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity to own in sought-after Chelsea Heights! This single-family home is full of potential and ready to be transformed into the ultimate family retreat or smart investment. Ideally located near Bader Field—poised for a highly anticipated billion-dollar redevelopment—this area is on the verge of major growth. With exciting changes on the horizon and values expected to rise, now is the time to get in early. Whether you’re looking to customize your dream home or secure a property in an up-and-coming location, this is a chance you don’t want to miss. Opportunities like this don’t last—buy now before prices take off.

17. 2026-04-14
    historical 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Large Price Cut. Priced to sell. Detached single family home in Chelsea on large lot. Only minutes to the beach, casino's, and Stockton University. Needs renovations. Investors and cash buyers wanted.

18. 2026-04-06
    price $150,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Large Price Cut. Priced to sell. Detached single family home in Chelsea on large lot. Only minutes to the beach, casino's, and Stockton University. Needs renovations. Investors and cash buyers wanted.

19. 2026-03-23
    listed $175,000 Active 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Large Price Cut. Priced to sell. Detached single family home in Chelsea on large lot. Only minutes to the beach, casino's, and Stockton University. Needs renovations. Investors and cash buyers wanted.

20. 1993-10-05
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,065 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,164/yr (+$97/mo · 40.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,900
• − Insurance: −$6,169
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$8,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,104
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atlantic City School District
• NCES district ID: 3400960
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,842
• Composite: 13.66/100
• National rank: #9504
• State rank: #454 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Atlantic City

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #23095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B- Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlantic City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• City population: 38,925
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 38,925
• Household income: $41,126
• Rent vs Own: 69.8% rent · 30.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3414.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 32% Asian 16% White 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 8% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.82%
• Current HPI: 353.7827
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+366.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $210,000 SJSRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $150,000 SJSRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $175,000 SJSRMLS
• 1993-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,900 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.