1281 Winding Way · Coolbaugh, PA 18466

$275,450

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1994 0.26 ac lot $182/sqft · 5% above area Est $262k · 5% over $149/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath home offering a large living room with wood burning fireplace and french doors leading to the back deck. Newly updated kitchen with granite counter tops and stainless-steel appliances. Home is in an amenity filled community offering swimming pools, basketball courts, tennis courts, lakes, monthly activities and so much more not to mention this development does allow short term rentals! Close to many Pocono attractions. Seller is a PA licensed REALTOR.

Key facts

• French doors
• Updated kitchen
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FRENCH DOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMENITY FILLED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $275k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $222,319 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.76%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,941
• List price: $275,450
• Delta: 5.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2834 Fairhaven Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (-6%)	3mo	$255,000	$180	60
2609 Foxledge Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,572 (+4%)	12mo	$194,500	$124	54
1189 Fox Trl	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,372 (-9%)	1mo	$190,522	$139	51
2392 Winding Way	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+3%)	12mo	$262,500	$168	51
2630 Foxledge Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+7%)	9mo	$220,000	$136	51
2714 Starlight Ter	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-7%)	7mo	$290,000	$207	44
2505 Waterfront Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,726 (+14%)	3mo	$535,000	$310	42
1154 Jewel Ter	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,428 (-6%)	13mo	$250,000	$175	41
1452 Waterfront Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (-10%)	10mo	$228,000	$167	40
2744 Cleremont Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (+10%)	14mo	$297,000	$178	40
1066 Knollwood Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-11%)	6mo	$335,000	$248	38
2871 Fairhaven Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,712 (+13%)	5mo	$236,000	$138	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $16,719
• Equity at exit: $114,000

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $81,516
• Equity at exit: $168,379

Cash invested: $77,126 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18466

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,444
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,936/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$149
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,367

Max offer price $255,443

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,862
• Closing costs: $8,264
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9294 Bluebird Ct Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	2.5	2107	$2,150	$1.02	13d	1	1.32mi
9026 Idlewild Dr Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,300	$2.15	13d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $149 · $1,788/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,450 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,450 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,450 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,450 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,450 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,450 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,450 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,450 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,450 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,450 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,450 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,450 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,450 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,450 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $275,450 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath home offering a large living room with wood burning fireplace and french doors leading to the back deck. Newly updated kitchen with granite counter tops and stainless-steel appliances. Home is in an amenity filled community offering swimming pools, basketball courts, tennis courts, lakes, monthly activities and so much more not to mention this development does allow short term rentals! Close to many Pocono attractions. Seller is a PA licensed REALTOR.

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $287,550 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath home offering a large living room with wood burning fireplace and french doors leading to the back deck. Newly updated kitchen with granite counter tops and stainless-steel appliances. Home is in an amenity filled community offering swimming pools, basketball courts, tennis courts, lakes, monthly activities and so much more not to mention this development does allow short term rentals! Close to many Pocono attractions. Seller is a PA licensed REALTOR.

17. 2025-08-07
    price $239,900
18. 2025-07-03
    price $239,900
19. 2025-06-03
    price $249,700
20. 2025-05-31
    price $249,900
21. 2025-05-31
    price $249,900
22. 2025-05-16
    listed $279,900 Active
23. 2025-04-25
    listed $279,900 Active
24. 2022-03-17
    soldstatus $145,000
25. 2022-03-14
    soldstatus $145,000
26. 2021-09-17
    listed $145,000
27. 2008-03-11
    listed $154,000
28. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $121,540
29. 2000-08-08
    soldstatus $60,000
30. 1994-02-17
    soldstatus $20,000
31. 1988-12-28
    soldstatus $13,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,208/yr (+$101/mo · 62.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,429
• − Property taxes: −$1,936
• − Insurance: −$1,377
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − HOA: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$8,013
• Taxable loss: −$6,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,472
• After-tax cash flow: $113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Coolbaugh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,997

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 24% Two or more races 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 202.4134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1978.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $275,450 PMAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $287,550 PMAR
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $239,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $239,900 PMAR
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $249,700 PMAR
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $249,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $249,900 PMAR
• 2025-05-16 Listed $279,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $279,900 PMAR
• 2022-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-14 Sold (MLS) $145,000 PMAR
• 2021-09-17 Listed $145,000 PMAR
• 2008-03-11 Listed $154,000 PMAR
• 2005-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $121,540 Public Records
• 2000-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $13,250 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,936 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.