172 Sones Chapel Rd · Picayune, MS 39426

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2015 2.91 ac lot $92/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This priced-to-sell property is perfect for those looking for peace, quiet, and a limited amount of fixer-upper work. It must be seen in person to appreciate the full potential of this hidden gem! Call for a showing today! A plat and survey should be relied on for the property boundaries; MLS pictures are not deemed reliable for identifying the property and should not be relied on by the buyer.

Key facts

• 2.91 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with space for 4 vehicles; 4 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Propane; Cable connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Entry level: One
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Slab/other foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Porch; French doors; Partial fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave, Dishwasher, Gas Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood heating; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Microwave, Dishwasher, Gas Range; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($360/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Pearl River County School District (rural): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #35 of 130 in MS (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 319 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $135k implies a 800% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,889 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,079
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -50.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Sones Chapel Road Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+1%)	8mo	$269,900	$182	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-19,949
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,838
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39426

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $77	+0% $30	+5% $-17	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-18	+0% $30	+5% $78	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $64	base $30	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $135,000 Active 397-char remark
16. 2015-04-17
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl River County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803540
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,916
• Composite: 35.44/100
• National rank: #4931
• State rank: #35 of 130 in MS

Livability — Picayune

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3748

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,555

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.24%
• Current HPI: 158.3694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+800.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $135,000 PRCBOR
• 2015-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records