628 W End Ave · Carthage, NY 13619

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1903 2,740 sqft lot Est $161k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Why pay rent when you can own for less? This townhouse is affordably priced with all the big-ticket updates already done for you to enjoy worry free living for years to come. The covered front porch perfect for relaxing welcomes you into the foyer area that flows right around the whole downstairs. The oversized living room with a large front window offers an abundance of natural light with a beautiful knotty pine ceiling flows into the formal dining room. New modern kitchen offers updated cabinets, countertop & an expansive breakfast bar offering additional storage & seating. Upstairs is 3 generous sized bedrooms & a newly renovated full bathroom. A back door off the kitch

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Knotty pine ceiling
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• KNOTTY PINE CEILING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE BREAKFAST BAR
• NEWLY RENOVATED FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing residence; Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation
• Construction: Built (existing); Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Deck; Porch; Enclosed porch; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Separate formal dining room; Kitchen/family room combo; Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.4% in Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $130k implies a 655% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.47%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
664 W End Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,200 (0%)	11mo	$27,000	$23	88
642 W End Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,240 (+3%)	11mo	$55,000	$44	84
622 Fulton St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+4%)	1mo	$190,000	$153	70
622 Alexandria St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+13%)	0mo	$175,000	$129	68
316 N Clinton St	0.37mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-4%)	7mo	$56,000	$49	65
802 W End Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	11mo	$164,300	$137	61
713 Parham St	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,037 (-14%)	9mo	$162,000	$156	58
994 Alexandria St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+1%)	18mo	$67,000	$55	55
71 Champion St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+10%)	8mo	$143,000	$109	47
74 Champion St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+9%)	12mo	$229,900	$175	44
86 1/2 Champion St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-12%)	8mo	$141,800	$134	42
620 West St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+12%)	11mo	$187,500	$140	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $85,162
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $239,412
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,276/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,065

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $263	+0% $227	+5% $190	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $173	+0% $227	+5% $280	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $260	base $227	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Alexandria St Unit 719 Carthage, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 687-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,735 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,276
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $649
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$156
• After-tax cash flow: $2,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 10,578
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+655.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $129,900 CNYIS
• 2001-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $17,200 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,276 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.