4128 Hemlock Trl · Tobyhanna, PA 18350

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1968 0.48 ac lot $289/sqft · 22% below area Est $447k · 22% under $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy, Well Kept 3 + Bedroom, 2 Bath Ranch style home in a Quiet Location, nestled on . 48 wooded acres. Features include a Beautiful Wood Burning Stone Fireplace, 1 Car Garage, Screen Porch, and within Walking Distance to Lake, Beach, and Pool. A Must See!

Key facts

• Screen porch
• 0.48 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STONE FIREPLACE
• SCREEN PORCH
• WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE
• WALKING DISTANCE TO BEACH
• WALKING DISTANCE TO POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $265,668 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.74%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $446,853
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -21.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5598 Woodland Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+11%)	16mo	$335,000	$249	60
2299 Hillcrest Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-5%)	20mo	$440,000	$382	60
245 Aspen Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+10%)	20mo	$485,000	$365	55
151 Winding Hill Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+15%)	13mo	$450,000	$323	53
261 Aspen Rd	0.33mi	3/3.0	1,350 (+11%)	12mo	$476,250	$353	51
5493 Woodland Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+11%)	15mo	$344,900	$257	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-86,392
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-113,099
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18350

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,980/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,249

Max offer price $267,176

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-270	-5% $-369	+0% $-468	+5% $-567	+10% $-666
Rent	-10% $-678	-5% $-573	+0% $-468	+5% $-363	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-292	-0.5pp $-379	base $-468	+0.5pp $-559	+1.0pp $-651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,900 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,900 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,900 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,900 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,900 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    price $349,900 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Cozy, Well Kept 3 + Bedroom, 2 Bath Ranch style home in a Quiet Location, nestled on . 48 wooded acres. Features include a Beautiful Wood Burning Stone Fireplace, 1 Car Garage, Screen Porch, and within Walking Distance to Lake, Beach, and Pool. A Must See!

16. 2025-12-06
    price $375,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Cozy, Well Kept 3 + Bedroom, 2 Bath Ranch style home in a Quiet Location, nestled on . 48 wooded acres. Features include a Beautiful Wood Burning Stone Fireplace, 1 Car Garage, Screen Porch, and within Walking Distance to Lake, Beach, and Pool. A Must See!

17. 2025-10-18
    listed $395,000 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Cozy, Well Kept 3 + Bedroom, 2 Bath Ranch style home in a Quiet Location, nestled on . 48 wooded acres. Features include a Beautiful Wood Burning Stone Fireplace, 1 Car Garage, Screen Porch, and within Walking Distance to Lake, Beach, and Pool. A Must See!

18. 2014-08-01
    listed $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,980 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,980 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$5,980
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,550
• − Management: −$2,550
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$11,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Tobyhanna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Pines, PA
• Population (ZIP): 595

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 12% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Korean 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Current HPI: 215.5562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+141.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $349,900 PMAR
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $375,000 PMAR
• 2025-10-18 Listed $395,000 PMAR
• 2014-08-01 Listed $145,000 PMAR

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,980 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.