242 Connolly Dr · Hazelwood, MO 63135

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1948 6,250 sqft lot $162/sqft · 34% above area Est $89k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PROPERTY IS OCCUPIED BY RENTER. DO NOT TRESPASS. Home has some minor updates throughout. The long term tenant would like to stay. Showings only with an accepted offer. This home is perfect for an investor who's looking to build and/or expand their portfolio.

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 150 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 7.2% in Hazelwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#395 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $119k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.33%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,501
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 34.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Connolly Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (+4%)	7mo	$69,000	$90	68
141 Flora Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+9%)	5mo	$70,000	$88	67
116 Barto Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	836 (+14%)	3mo	$115,000	$138	65
425 Marechal Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (+11%)	8mo	$89,900	$110	63
135 Anistasia Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (+8%)	5mo	$94,900	$120	63
100 Du Bourg Ln	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (+11%)	6mo	$165,000	$202	63
110 Barto Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (+11%)	5mo	$65,000	$80	62
43 Connolly Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (+11%)	5mo	$116,900	$143	60
515 Marechal Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	816 (+11%)	7mo	$164,000	$201	58
20 Derhake Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (+8%)	1mo	$139,900	$177	50
1185 Saint Matthew Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (+8%)	4mo	$128,000	$162	50
8293 Frost Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	840 (+14%)	7mo	$84,400	$100	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,709
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $59,135
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $320	+0% $287	+5% $253	+10% $219
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $236	+0% $287	+5% $337	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $317	base $287	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 Flora Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	703	$1,075	$1.53	24d	1	0.12mi
6336 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,175	$1.63	44d	1	1.25mi
6315 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	739	$1,175	$1.59	16d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-05-01
    status Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    PROPERTY IS OCCUPIED BY RENTER. DO NOT TRESPASS. Home has some minor updates throughout. The long term tenant would like to stay. Showings only with an accepted offer. This home is perfect for an investor who's looking to build and/or expand their portfolio.

12. 2026-04-03
    historical Active Under Contract 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    PROPERTY IS OCCUPIED BY RENTER. DO NOT TRESPASS. Home has some minor updates throughout. The long term tenant would like to stay. Showings only with an accepted offer. This home is perfect for an investor who's looking to build and/or expand their portfolio.

13. 2026-01-13
    listed $119,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    PROPERTY IS OCCUPIED BY RENTER. DO NOT TRESPASS. Home has some minor updates throughout. The long term tenant would like to stay. Showings only with an accepted offer. This home is perfect for an investor who's looking to build and/or expand their portfolio.

14. 2019-05-30
    soldstatus $43,000
15. 2002-02-27
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 86.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$377
• After-tax cash flow: $3,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Hazelwood

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #395
• US rank: #16956

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazelwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+891.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $619 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.