DOWNING+ Plan · Jacksonville, FL 32219

$262,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · SingleFamily · 191 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this thoughtfully designed new Express Series floor plan 1,245 sq. ft. single-family home called the Downing+, offering the perfect blend of comfort and functionality. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this layout maximizes every square foot with open living spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen is perfectly positioned for hosting, with ample counter space and a view of the entire main living area so you're always part of the conversation. Plenty of windows and vaulted ceilings in the main living areas create a bright and welcoming atmosphere.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 190 days

🏗️ New construction. The $262,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,862.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dinsmore Elementary School (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 595 students, 53% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); Jean Ribault High School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,385 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 899 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,528 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,862
• List price: $262,400
• Delta: -11.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12295 Copper Mallard Pl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,245 (0%)	2mo	$272,350	$219	94
5337 White Grove Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,245 (0%)	3mo	$279,850	$225	90
12307 Copper Mallard Pl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,245 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$209	88
5348 White Grove Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+3%)	2mo	$279,850	$217	87
12259 Copper Mallard Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+3%)	0mo	$289,895	$225	87
12301 Copper Mallard Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+3%)	2mo	$288,000	$224	84
12265 Copper Mallard Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,245 (0%)	0mo	$279,850	$225	83
5367 White Grove Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+3%)	1mo	$289,000	$225	82
12343 Great Eagle Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+3%)	9mo	$280,990	$218	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-77,300
• Equity at exit: $43,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-121,208
• Equity at exit: $25,494

Cash invested: $82,561 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,195 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 148 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32219

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 899
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,423/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $241,807

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-265	+0% $-367	+5% $-469	+10% $-570
Rent	-10% $-534	-5% $-450	+0% $-367	+5% $-283	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-218	-0.5pp $-292	base $-367	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,715
• Closing costs: $8,846
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5441 Hollow Birch Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,125	$1.43	6d	1	0.36mi
5441 Hollow Birch Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,125	$1.43	0d	1	0.36mi
5735 Wandering Trl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,500	$1.07	145d	1	0.93mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12318 Great Eagle Rd, Jacksonville, FL 32219Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $262,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (DOWNING+)New construction inventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,245

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living areaPlan: DOWNING+

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $262,400 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $262,400 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $262,400 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $262,400 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $262,400 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $262,400 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $262,400 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $262,400 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $262,400 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $262,400 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $262,400 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $262,400 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $262,400 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $262,400 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $262,400 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $262,400 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $262,400 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-10-20
    days on market $262,400 Active 172 DOM
19. 2026-10-19
    days on market $262,400 Active 171 DOM
20. 2026-10-18
    days on market $262,400 Active 170 DOM
21. 2026-10-17
    days on market $262,400 Active 169 DOM
22. 2026-10-16
    days on market $262,400 Active 168 DOM
23. 2026-10-15
    days on market $262,400 Active 167 DOM
24. 2026-10-14
    days on market $262,400 Active 166 DOM
25. 2026-10-13
    days on market $262,400 Active 165 DOM
26. 2026-10-12
    days on market $262,400 Active 164 DOM
27. 2026-10-11
    days on market $262,400 Active 163 DOM
28. 2026-10-10
    days on market $262,400 Active 162 DOM
29. 2026-10-09
    days on market $262,400 Active 161 DOM
30. 2026-10-08
    days on market $262,400 Active 160 DOM
31. 2026-10-07
    days on market $262,400 Active 159 DOM
32. 2026-10-06
    days on market $262,400 Active 158 DOM
33. 2026-10-05
    days on market $262,400 Active 157 DOM
34. 2026-10-04
    days on market $262,400 Active 156 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $262,400 Active 155 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $262,400 Active 154 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $262,400 Active 153 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $262,400 Active 152 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $262,400 Active 151 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $262,400 Active 150 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $262,400 Active 149 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $262,400 Active 147 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $262,400 Active 146 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $262,400 Active 145 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $262,400 Active 144 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $262,400 Active 143 DOM
47. 2026-09-19
    days on market $262,400 Active 141 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $262,400 Active 140 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $262,400 Active 139 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $262,400 Active 138 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,517
• − Property taxes: −$4,423
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − Depreciation: −$8,578
• Taxable loss: −$9,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,321
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences and energy efficiency. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Dinsmore Elementary School C FL #936/2,144 Nat'l #10,700/41,679 Middle Joseph Stilwell Middle School F FL #448/571 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Jean Ribault High School F FL #533/667 Nat'l #13,485/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,013,010 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,302
• Household income: $72,184
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.90%
• Current HPI: 263.8901
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12318 Great Eagle Rd, Jacksonville, FL 32219Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $262,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (DOWNING+)New construction inventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,245

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living areaPlan: DOWNING+