14628 Norcross Pl · Horizon City, TX 79928

$199,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1996 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique opportunity in Horizon with flexibility, space, and endless potential! Situated on a spacious 10,000+ sq ft lot, this updated manufactured home offers a rare setup perfect for homeowners, entrepreneurs, or multi-generational living. The main home has been well-maintained and features updates, including an improved roof and comfortable living spaces ready for everyday enjoyment. What truly makes this property stand out are the detached bonus structures--one currently being used as a beauty salon, making it an ideal office, studio, workspace, or home business setup, plus a separate detached apartment with its own bathroom offering flexible use for guests, extended family, hobby space,

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• DETACHED BONUS STRUCTURES
• SEPARATE DETACHED APARTMENT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Mobile home dimensions approximately 16 ft x 76 ft; Building area about 1,216
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Gazebo; Fenced yard; See remarks for additional exterior details

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric oven
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 2 three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Refrigerated cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double pane windows; Detached in-law apartment (main level, ~20 x 40 ft)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Horizon Middle (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 670 students, 84% FRL); Horizon H S (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 1,677 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 59% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2093 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.95%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,906
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $15,229
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2093
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $917/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $379	+0% $323	+5% $266	+10% $210
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $246	+0% $323	+5% $399	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $373	base $323	+0.5pp $271	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14624 Achim Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,500	$1.05	11d	1	0.48mi
14608 Adonis Blue Ct El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	11d	1	0.53mi
656 Orchid Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,350	$1.24	25d	1	0.68mi
14361 Star Cactus Ave Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,600	$1.37	11d	1	0.78mi
14269 Escalera Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,850	$1.46	4d	1	0.79mi
14333 Paraiso Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,000	$1.63	4d	1	0.82mi
456 Von Bargen Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	15d	1	1.00mi
14496 Cabana Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,475	$1.32	45d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $199,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $200,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $220,000 Active 926-char remark
16. 2014-02-11
    soldstatus
17. 2010-09-23
    soldstatus
18. 2008-11-14
    listed $30,000
19. 2008-11-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,724/yr (+$227/mo · 296.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$917
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $3,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horizon City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+566.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $200,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $205,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $220,000 GEPARMLS
• 2014-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-11-14 Listed $30,000 GEPARMLS
• 2008-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $917 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.